Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Kerry A Hamilton^{1

2}, Joanna Ciol Harrison^{1

2}, Jade Mitchell³, Mark Weir⁴, Marc Verhougstraete⁵, Charles N Haas⁶, A Pouyan Nejadhashemi³, Julie Libarkin⁷, Tiong Gim Aw⁸, Kyle Bibby⁹, Aaron Bivins¹⁰, Joe Brown¹¹, Kara Dean³, Gwyneth Dunbar³, Joseph N S Eisenberg¹², Monica Emelko¹³, Daniel Gerrity¹⁴, Patrick L Gurian⁶, Emma Hartnett¹⁵, Michael Jahne¹⁶, Rachael M Jones¹⁷, Timothy R Julian¹⁸, Hongwan Li³, Yanbin Li¹⁹, Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson²⁰, Gertjan Medema^{21

22}, J Scott Meschke²³, Alexis Mraz²⁴, Heather Murphy²⁵, David Oryang²⁶, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah²⁷, Emily Pasek⁷, Abani K Pradhan²⁸, Maria Tereza Pepe Razzolini²⁹, Michael O Ryan⁶, Mary Schoen³⁰, Patrick W M H Smeets^{21

22}, Jeffrey Soller³⁰, Helena Solo-Gabriele³¹, Clinton Williams³², Amanda M Wilson³³, Amy Zimmer-Faust³⁴, Jumana Alja'fari³⁵, Joan B Rose³

Affiliations

¹ The Biodesign Institute Center for Environmental Health Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
² School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
³ Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
⁴ Division of Environmental Health Sciences and Sustainability Institute, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
⁵ Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
⁶ Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
⁷ Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
⁸ Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
⁹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA.
¹¹ Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
¹² Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
¹³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁴ Applied Research and Development Center, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
¹⁵ Risk Sciences International, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁶ Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
¹⁸ Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland.
¹⁹ Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, The University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA.
²⁰ Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.
²¹ KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.
²² TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands.
²³ Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
²⁴ Department of Public Health, School of Nursing, Health and Exercise Science, The College of New Jersey, Ewing, New Jersey, USA.
²⁵ Ontario Veterinary College Department of Pathobiology, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
²⁶ Food and Drug Administration (FDA), US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN), College Park, United States.
²⁷ Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, RWESCK/LISA College of Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.
²⁸ Department of Nutrition and Food Science & Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.
²⁹ School of Public Health of the University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo-SP-Brazil, Brazil.
³⁰ Soller Environmental, Berkeley, California, USA.
³¹ Department of Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA.
³² US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona, USA.
³³ Community, Environment & Policy Department, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
³⁴ The Nature Conservancy, San Francisco, California, USA.
³⁵ National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.

PMID: 38772724
PMCID: PMC11560611 (available on 2025-11-01)
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14318

Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Kerry A Hamilton et al. Risk Anal. 2024 Nov.

. 2024 Nov;44(11):2521-2536.

doi: 10.1111/risa.14318. Epub 2024 May 21.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ The Biodesign Institute Center for Environmental Health Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
² School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.
³ Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
⁴ Division of Environmental Health Sciences and Sustainability Institute, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
⁵ Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
⁶ Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
⁷ Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
⁸ Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
⁹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA.
¹¹ Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
¹² Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
¹³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁴ Applied Research and Development Center, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
¹⁵ Risk Sciences International, Ontario, Canada.
¹⁶ Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
¹⁸ Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland.
¹⁹ Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, The University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA.
²⁰ Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.
²¹ KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.
²² TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands.
²³ Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
²⁴ Department of Public Health, School of Nursing, Health and Exercise Science, The College of New Jersey, Ewing, New Jersey, USA.
²⁵ Ontario Veterinary College Department of Pathobiology, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
²⁶ Food and Drug Administration (FDA), US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN), College Park, United States.
²⁷ Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, RWESCK/LISA College of Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.
²⁸ Department of Nutrition and Food Science & Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.
²⁹ School of Public Health of the University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo-SP-Brazil, Brazil.
³⁰ Soller Environmental, Berkeley, California, USA.
³¹ Department of Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA.
³² US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona, USA.
³³ Community, Environment & Policy Department, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
³⁴ The Nature Conservancy, San Francisco, California, USA.
³⁵ National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.

PMID: 38772724
PMCID: PMC11560611 (available on 2025-11-01)
DOI: 10.1111/risa.14318

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need for more rapid and routine application of modeling approaches such as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for protecting public health. QMRA is a transdisciplinary science dedicated to understanding, predicting, and mitigating infectious disease risks. To better equip QMRA researchers to inform policy and public health management, an Advances in Research for QMRA workshop was held to synthesize a path forward for QMRA research. We summarize insights from 41 QMRA researchers and experts to clarify the role of QMRA in risk analysis by (1) identifying key research needs, (2) highlighting emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describing data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key identified research priorities included using molecular tools in QMRA, advancing dose-response methodology, addressing needed exposure assessments, harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA, unifying a divide between disease transmission and QMRA models, calibrating and/or validating QMRA models, modeling co-exposures and mixtures, and standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout the source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: develop a community of research and practice, integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, increase QMRA translation and impacts, build communication strategies, and encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies.

Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; environmental health; pathogens; quantitative microbial risk assessment; risk analysis; safety.

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Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Affiliations

Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

References

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical