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. 2024 May 18;21(5):643.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph21050643.

Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions

Mingdong Lyu  1 , Kuofu Liu  2 , Randolph W Hall  2
Affiliations

Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions

Mingdong Lyu et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Human travel plays a crucial role in the spread of infectious disease between regions. Travel of infected individuals from one region to another can transport a virus to places that were previously unaffected or may accelerate the spread of disease in places where the disease is not yet well established. We develop and apply models and metrics to analyze the role of inter-regional travel relative to the spread of disease, drawing from data on COVID-19 in the United States. To better understand how transportation affects disease transmission, we established a multi-regional time-varying compartmental disease model with spatial interaction. The compartmental model was integrated with statistical estimates of travel between regions. From the integrated model, we derived a transmission import index to assess the risk of COVID-19 transmission between states. Based on the index, we determined states with high risk for disease spreading to other states at the scale of months, and we analyzed how the index changed over time during 2020. Our model provides a tool for policymakers to evaluate the influence of travel between regions on disease transmission in support of strategies for epidemic control.

Keywords: COVID-19; compartmental model; disease transport; healthcare policy; interregional travel.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Three phases of disease spreading among regions (blue shading reflects prevalence of disease in regions, with darker shade showing greater prevalence).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Average RRMSE for cases and deaths over 7 months among 50 states (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Fitting for cases in Georgia, New Jersey, Florida, and Maryland (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Fitting results for deaths in Georgia, New Jersey, Florida, and Maryland (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Transmission import index for six states in the US from 20 March 2020 to 15 September 2020 (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Average transmission import index for top 10 populated states and bottom 40 populated states in the US from 20 March 2020 to 15 September 2020 (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 7
Figure 7
Transmission import index heat map in the US from 20 March 2020 to 15 April 2020 (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 8
Figure 8
Transmission import index heat map in the US from 15 August 2020 to 15 September 2020 (α = 1, γ = 2).
Figure 9
Figure 9
Transmission import index heat map in the US for three time periods with a changing GDP power-law parameter.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Transmission import index heat map in the US for three time periods with a changing distance power-law parameter.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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