Burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in low-income and middle-income countries avertible by existing interventions: an evidence review and modelling analysis

Abstract

National action plans enumerate many interventions as potential strategies to reduce the burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, knowledge of the benefits achievable by specific approaches is needed to inform policy making, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with substantial AMR burden and low health-care system capacity. In a modelling analysis, we estimated that improving infection prevention and control programmes in LMIC health-care settings could prevent at least 337 000 (95% CI 250 200-465 200) AMR-associated deaths annually. Ensuring universal access to high-quality water, sanitation, and hygiene services would prevent 247 800 (160 000-337 800) AMR-associated deaths and paediatric vaccines 181 500 (153 400-206 800) AMR-associated deaths, from both direct prevention of resistant infections and reductions in antibiotic consumption. These estimates translate to prevention of 7·8% (5·6-11·0) of all AMR-associated mortality in LMICs by infection prevention and control, 5·7% (3·7-8·0) by water, sanitation, and hygiene, and 4·2% (3·4-5·1) by vaccination interventions. Despite the continuing need for research and innovation to overcome limitations of existing approaches, our findings indicate that reducing global AMR burden by 10% by the year 2030 is achievable with existing interventions. Our results should guide investments in public health interventions with the greatest potential to reduce AMR burden.