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. 2024 May 6;16(3):435-447.
doi: 10.3390/idr16030032.

Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study

Achilleas Tsoumanis  1   2 , Wim Vanden Berghe  1 , Niel Hens  2   3 , Christophe Van Dijck  1
Affiliations

Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study

Achilleas Tsoumanis et al. Infect Dis Rep. .

Abstract

Mathematical modeling is widely used for describing infection transmission and evaluating interventions. The lack of reliable social parameters in the literature has been mentioned by many modeling studies, leading to limitations in the validity and interpretation of the results. Using data from the European MSM Internet survey 2017, we developed a network model to describe sex acts among MSM in Belgium. The model simulates daily sex acts among steady, persistent casual and one-off partners in a population of 10,000 MSM, grouped as low- or high-activity by using three different definitions. Model calibration was used to estimate partnership duration and homophily rates to match the distribution of cumulative sex partners over 12 months. We estimated an average duration between 1065 and 1409 days for steady partnerships, 4-6 and 251-299 days for assortative high- and low-activity individuals and 8-13 days for disassortative persistent casual partnerships, respectively, varying across the three definitions. High-quality data on social network and behavioral parameters are scarce in the literature. Our study addresses this lack of information by providing a method to estimate crucial parameters for network specification.

Keywords: homophily; mathematical model; mathematical modeling; men who have sex with men; partnership duration; sexually transmitted diseases.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Observed (histogram) and simulated (line) cumulative sex partner distribution (12 months) among steady partnerships.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Observed (histogram) and simulated (line) cumulative sex partner distribution (12 months) among persistent casual partnerships.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Observed (histogram) and simulated (line) cumulative sex partner distribution (12 months) among one-off casual partnerships.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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