Prediction of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in comparison with other stroke types using routine care data

Abstract

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) can be prevented by early detection and treatment of intracranial aneurysms in high-risk individuals. We investigated whether individuals at high risk of aSAH in the general population can be identified by developing an aSAH prediction model with electronic health records (EHR) data. To assess the aSAH model's relative performance, we additionally developed prediction models for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and compared the discriminative performance of the models. We included individuals aged ≥35 years without history of stroke from a Dutch routine care database (years 2007-2020) and defined outcomes aSAH, AIS and ICH using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. Potential predictors included sociodemographic data, diagnoses, medications, and blood measurements. We cross-validated a Cox proportional hazards model with an elastic net penalty on derivation cohorts and reported the c-statistic and 10-year calibration on validation cohorts. We examined 1,040,855 individuals (mean age 54.6 years, 50.9% women) for a total of 10,173,170 person-years (median 11 years). 17,465 stroke events occurred during follow-up: 723 aSAH, 14,659 AIS, and 2,083 ICH. The aSAH model's c-statistic was 0.61 (95%CI 0.57-0.65), which was lower than the c-statistic of the AIS (0.77, 95%CI 0.77-0.78) and ICH models (0.77, 95%CI 0.75-0.78). All models were well-calibrated. The aSAH model identified 19 predictors, of which the 10 strongest included age, female sex, population density, socioeconomic status, oral contraceptive use, gastroenterological complaints, obstructive airway medication, epilepsy, childbirth complications, and smoking. Discriminative performance of the aSAH prediction model was moderate, while it was good for the AIS and ICH models. We conclude that it is currently not feasible to accurately identify individuals at increased risk for aSAH using EHR data.

Fig 1. All predictors of the aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) prediction model in relation to the corresponding coefficients of these predictors in the acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) prediction models.

Each coefficient corresponds to the log hazard ratios after applying elastic net penalties. 0 indicates that the predictor is not predictive for that outcome. No confidence intervals are reported for these coefficients because penalized regression techniques result in biased coefficient estimates, making traditional confidence intervals potentially misleading or inappropriate for conveying uncertainty.