Validation of a polygenic risk score for frailty in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 and English longitudinal study of ageing

Abstract

Frailty is a complex trait. Twin studies and high-powered Genome Wide Association Studies conducted in the UK Biobank have demonstrated a strong genetic basis of frailty. The present study utilized summary statistics from a Genome Wide Association Study on the Frailty Index to create and test the predictive power of frailty polygenic risk scores (PRS) in two independent samples - the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) aged 67-84 years. Multiple regression models were built to test the predictive power of frailty PRS at five time points. Frailty PRS significantly predicted frailty, measured via the FI, at all-time points in LBC1936 and ELSA, explaining 2.1% (β = 0.15, 95%CI, 0.085-0.21) and 1.8% (β = 0.14, 95%CI, 0.10-0.17) of the variance, respectively, at age ~ 68/ ~ 70 years (p < 0.001). This work demonstrates that frailty PRS can predict frailty in two independent cohorts, particularly at early ages (~ 68/ ~ 70). PRS have the potential to be valuable instruments for identifying those at risk for frailty and could be important for controlling for genetic confounders in epidemiological studies.

Figure 1

A bar plot comparing the standardized coefficients from the most predictive model at each time point in LBC1936 and ELSA. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. The darker the bar the stronger the effect size.