Deciphering the link between healthcare expenditure, corruption, and COVID-19 mortality

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of COVID-19 mortality across over 140 countries in 2020, with a focus on healthcare expenditure and corruption. It finds a positive association between COVID-19 deaths and aging populations, obesity rates, and healthcare expenditure while noting a negative association with rural residency and corruption perception. The study further reveals that mortality is positively associated with aging populations in high-income countries and positively associated with obesity in upper-middle to high-income countries. Mortality is positively associated with healthcare expenditure, which likely reflects a country's preparedness and ability to better track, document, and report COVID-19 deaths. On the other hand, mortality is negatively associated with corruption perception in upper-middle-income countries. Further analyses based on 2021 data reveal COVID-19 deaths are positively associated with the proportion of the population aged 65 and older in low to lower-middle-income countries, with obesity in high-income countries, and with tobacco use across most countries. Interestingly, there is no evidence linking COVID-19 deaths to healthcare expenditure and corruption perception, suggesting a post-2020 convergence in preparedness likely due to proactive pandemic responses, which might have also mitigated corruption's impact. Policy recommendations are proposed to aid the elderly, address obesity, and combat tobacco use.

Figure 1

Plot of ln deaths and healthcare expenditure.

Figure 2

Plot of ln deaths and corruption perceptions index.