Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Jun 4;11(1):578.
doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-03400-2.

Ensemble of global climate simulations for temperature in historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios from HadAM4

Jesús Lizana #  1   2 , Nicole D Miranda #  3   4 , Sarah N Sparrow  5 , Peter A G Watson  6 , Miriam Zachau Walker  2 , David C H Wallom  5 , Malcolm D McCulloch  1   2
Affiliations

Ensemble of global climate simulations for temperature in historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios from HadAM4

Jesús Lizana et al. Sci Data. .

Abstract

Large ensembles of global temperature are provided for three climate scenarios: historical (2006-16), 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Each scenario has 700 members (70 simulations per year for ten years) of 6-hourly mean temperatures at a resolution of 0.833° ´ 0.556° (longitude ´ latitude) over the land surface. The data was generated using the climateprediction.net (CPDN) climate simulation environment, to run HadAM4 Atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (AGCM) from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. Biases in simulated temperature were identified and corrected using quantile mapping with reference temperature data from ERA5. The data is stored within the UK Natural and Environmental Research Council Centre for Environmental Data Analysis repository as NetCDF V4 files.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Data distribution of the entire ensemble before and after bias correction compared with ERA5. Data analysis was generated for a latitude and a longitude located in the UK: −1.7° longitude and 52.2° latitude. Note: in the legend, “model_*_bias” refers to data with bias corrected.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Changes in the mean surface air temperature between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. The left column shows the change in the HadAM4 simulations, and the middle column shows the multi-model change in the CMIP6 SSP2-4.5 scenario simulations between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. The right column shows the difference between these, with stippling indicating the statistical significance of differences at the 95% level based on sampling variability in the HadAM4 data (see text). The top row shows changes in the June-August season, and the bottom row shows changes for December-February.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. IPCC. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/. - PMC - PubMed
    1. IPCC. Synthesis report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf (2023).
    1. IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 10.1017/9781009325844 (Cambridge University Press, 2022).
    1. Andrijevic M, Byers E, Mastrucci A, Smits J, Fuss S. Future cooling gap in shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters. 2021;16:094053. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2195. - DOI
    1. Isaac M, van Vuuren DP. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. Energy Policy. 2009;37:507–521. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051. - DOI