Origin of the H1N1 (Russian influenza) pandemic of 1977-A risk assessment using the modified Grunow-Finke tool (mGFT)

Abstract

In 1977, the Soviet Union (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics [USSR]) notified the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of H1N1 influenza, which later spread to many countries. The H1N1 strain of 1977 reappeared after being absent from the world for over 20 years. This pandemic simultaneously spread to several cities in the USSR and China. Many theories have been postulated to account for the emergence of this pandemic, including natural and unnatural origins. The purpose of this study was to use the modified Grunow-Finke risk assessment tool (modified Grunow-Finke tool [mGFT]) to investigate the origin of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic. Data was collected from WHO archives and published documents. The assessment of the pandemic's origin involved the utilization of a modified version of the original Grunow-Finke risk assessment tool (GFT). Using the mGFT, the final score was 37 out of 60 points (probability: 62%), indicating a high likelihood that the Russian influenza pandemic of 1977 was of unnatural origin. Several variables supported this finding, including the sudden re-emergence of a previously extinct strain, a genetic signature of laboratory modification for vaccine development, and unusual epidemiology. Inter-rater reliability was moderate to high. By applying the mGFT to the 1977 Russian influenza pandemic, we established a high probability that this pandemic was of unnatural origin. Although this is not definitive, it is consistent with the possibility that it originated from an incompletely attenuated live influenza vaccine. The mGFT is a useful risk analysis tool to evaluate the origin of epidemics.

Keywords: H1N1; epidemic; influenza; laboratory accident; risk analysis.