Multi-polygenic prediction of frailty highlights chronic pain and educational attainment as key risk and protective factors

Abstract

Frailty is a complex trait. Twin studies and recent Genome-Wide Association Studies have demonstrated a strong genetic basis of frailty but there remains a lack of genetic studies exploring genetic prediction of Frailty. Previous work has shown that a single polygenic predictor - represented by a Frailty polygenic score - predicts Frailty, measured via the frailty index, in independent samples within the United Kingdom. We extended this work, using a multi-polygenic score (MPS) approach to increase predictive power. Predictor variables - twenty-six polygenic scores (PGS) were modelled in regularised Elastic net regression models, with repeated cross-validation, to estimate joint prediction of the polygenic scores and order the predictions by their contributing strength to Frailty in two independent cohorts aged 65+ - the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936). Results showed that the MPS explained 3.6% and 4.7% of variance compared to the best single-score prediction of 2.6% and 2.2% of variance in ELSA and LBC1936 respectively. The strongest polygenic predictors of worsening frailty came from PGS for Chronic pain, Frailty and Waist circumference; whilst PGS for Parental Death, Educational attainment, and Rheumatoid Arthritis were found to be protective to frailty. Results from the predictors remaining in the final model were then validated using the longitudinal LBC1936, with equivalent PGS scores from the same GWAS summary statistics. Thus, this MPS approach provides new evidence for the genetic contributions to frailty in later life and sheds light on the complex structure of the Frailty Index measurement.

Figure 1.

Bar plot of the single model PGS with the FI as the outcome.

Figure 2.

Bar plot of the MPS, Elastic net regularised regression model, with covariates (age, sex, and ancestry principal components) included.