The impact of early death on birth counts in the United States, 1950 to 2019

Abstract

In a previous issue of PNAS Nexus, Bor et al. quantified the number of "missing Americans"-the deaths that would have been averted if the United States had experienced the mortality conditions of other wealthy nations. In 2019 alone, their estimates indicate that more than 100,000 individuals in reproductive ages (15-49 years) would have survived. The concept of the "missing Americans" is a valuable one, but here we argue that it is incomplete because it does not include children that would have been born to those who died an early death. We examine 3 indicators to assess the strength of the mortality-fertility nexus at the population level, showing that mortality more negatively affects birth counts in the United States than in other wealthy nations. Using the mortality conditions in other wealthy nations as a reference, we estimate that between 2010 and 2019 alone, approximately 200,000 children were not born in the United States due to the premature death of their potential mothers. Our findings highlight that improving morbidity and mortality among people of reproductive age-without compromising their reproductive autonomy-is critical in the United States.

Keywords: United States; counterfactual; demography; fertility; mortality.

Fig. 1.

Female probability of survival to age 50 years (${\ell }_{50}$) in the United States and 21 other wealthy nations, 1950–2019. Notes: Thick solid line = United States; thick dashed line = population-weighted average of the other wealthy nations; thin solid lines = country-specific trends for each of the other wealthy nations. Inset zooms in on period 1980–2019 for better readability. Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from United Nations World Population Prospects 2022.

Fig. 2.

Female RALE in the United States and 21 other wealthy nations, 1950–2019. Notes: Thick solid line = United States; thick dashed line = population-weighted average of the other wealthy nations; thin solid lines = country-specific trends for each of the other wealthy nations. Inset zooms in on period 1980–2019 for better readability. Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from United Nations World Population Prospects 2022.

Fig. 3.

Female RSR in the United States and 21 other wealthy nations, 1950–2019. Notes: Thick solid line = United States; thick dashed line = population-weighted average of the other wealthy nations; thin solid lines = country-specific trends for each of the other wealthy nations. RSR accounts for the birth of children of any sex. Inset zooms in on period 1980–2019 for better readability. Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from United Nations World Population Prospects 2022.

Fig. 4.

Additional births and missing births in the United States, 1950–2019. Notes: Areas = children that were only (pointing upward) or were not (pointing downward) born in the United States each year because the country did not experience the mortality conditions of 21 other wealthy nations beginning in 1950. Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from United Nations World Population Prospects 2022.