Predictive model of suicide risk in Colombian university students: quantitative analysis of associated factors

Abstract

Introduction: The risk of suicide and completed suicides among young university students presents critical challenges to mental and public health in Colombia and worldwide. Employing a quantifiable approach to comprehend the factors associated with these challenges can aid in visualizing the path towards anticipating and controlling this phenomenon.

Objective: Develop a predictive model for suicidal behavior in university students, utilizing predictive analytics.

Method: We conducted an observational, retrospective, cross-sectional, and analytical research study at the University of Manizales, with a focus on predictive applicability. Data from 2,436 undergraduate students were obtained from the research initiative "Building the Future: World Mental Health Surveys International College Students."

Results: The top ten predictor variables that generated the highest scores (ranking coefficients) for the sum of factors were as follows: history of sexual abuse (13.21), family history of suicide (11.68), medication (8.39), type of student (7.4), origin other than Manizales (5.86), exposure to cannabis (4.27), exposure to alcohol (4.42), history of physical abuse (3.53), religiosity (2.9), and having someone in the family who makes you feel important (3.09).

Discussion: Suicide involves complex factors within psychiatric, medical, and societal contexts. Integrated detection and intervention systems involving individuals, families, and governments are crucial for addressing these factors. Universities also play a role in promoting coping strategies and raising awareness of risks. The predictive accuracy of over 80% in identifying suicide risk underscores its significance.

Conclusion: The risk factors related to suicidal behavior align with the findings in specialized literature and research in the field. Identifying variables with higher predictive value enables us to take appropriate actions for detecting cases and designing and implementing prevention strategies.

Keywords: predictive model; risk factors; suicide; suicide attempt; university students.