Validation of late recurrence prediction by gene expression profiles and clinicopathological factors in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Abstract

Background: The mechanism of late recurrence (LR) of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer remains unclear, as previous studies have separately investigated "gene expression profiles" and "clinicopathological factors." Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the predictive capability of LR by combining the two independent factors of gene expression profiles (42-gene classifier: 42GC) and clinicopathological factors (Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years: CTS5) in multiple large cohorts.

Methods: We analyzed microarray CEL file data downloaded from public databases of 28 global cohorts. A total of 2,454 patients with ER-positive breast cancer were analyzed for 42GC, and 1,263 of these, with complete clinicopathological data were analyzed for CTS5.

Results: In the analysis of recurrent patients, the 42GC LR and CTS5 low-risk group tended to have LR. Notably, in the analysis of patients with and without recurrence, the highest LR rate beyond 5 years was observed in the CTS5 high-risk group. The combination of the 42GC and CTS5 high-risk groups showed the highest LR rate (16.9%), significantly exceeding that of the 42GC non-LR (NLR) and CTS5 low-risk combination (5.41%) (p = 0.038, odds ratio = 3.53). Furthermore, incorporating a third factor, 95GC, potentially reduced the number of patients prioritized for extended hormonal therapy for approximately one-quarter of patients.

Conclusions: Results confirmed that the two factors, gene expression profiles and clinicopathological factors, affect the time of recurrence. It also showed that the biological predisposition for LR (CTS5 low-risk) differed from the high LR rate (CTS5 high-risk). In clinical practice, patients with the 42GC LR and CTS5 high-risk combination should be prioritized for extended hormonal therapy. The addition of CTS5 and 95GC to 42GC allows for better risk classification of LR.

Keywords: 42-gene classifier; Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years; ER-positive breast cancer; Extended hormonal therapy; Late recurrence.