Global, regional and national burdens of Nasopharynx cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions

Abstract

Purpose: To use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of deaths incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).

Methods: Data from the GBD 2019 were used to analyze deaths incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to NPC at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development was analyzed using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred.

Results: The incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs rates (95%UI) due to NPC 0.96 (0.85-1.09, 6.31 (5.54-7.20),0.20 (0.19-0.22), and 12.23(11.27-13.29) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates increased by 1.79 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.55) and 2.97(95% CI 2.13 to 3.82) respectively while the deaths and DALYs rates declined by 1.64(95%CI 1.78 to 1.49) and 1.6(95%CI 1.75 to 1.4) respectively. Deaths and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and Middle East decreased with SDI. Incidence and prevalence rates in East Asia increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence and prevalence rates are high in China, Taiwan(China), Singapore, Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Malta. Meanwhile, the deaths and DALYs rates are still high in Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Greenland and Taiwan(Province of China). The deaths and DALYs rates are low in Honduras, Finland and Norway. From the 2020 to 2030, ASIR、ASPR and ASDR in most regions are predicted to stable, but DALYs tends to decline.

Conclusion: NPC in AYAs is a significant global public problem. The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates vary widely by region and country. Therefore different regions and countries should be targeted to improve the disease burden of NPC.

Keywords: Adolescents and young adults; Disease burden; Nasopharynx cancer; Prediction.

Fig. 1

Geographical distribution of Age-standardized Deaths (A), Age-standardized DALYs (B), Age-standardized Prevalence (C) and Age-standardized Incidence (D)

Fig. 2

Age-standardized Incidence (A), Age-standardized Prevalence (B), Age-standardized Deaths (C) and Age-standardized DALYs (D) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma by SDI, 1990–2019, and expected value-based SDI

Fig. 3

Incidence rate, prevalence rate, Deaths rate and DALYs rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma by 204 countries and terri-ries and SDI in 2019

Fig. 4

Changes in nasopharyngeal carcinoma disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) according to population-level determinants of population growth, aging, and epidemiological change from 1990 to 2019 at the global level and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintile

Fig. 5

Frontier analysis on the basis of sociodemographic-index and age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 1990 to 2019. (A)1990–2019; (B) 2019

Fig. 6

The ASDR, age-standardised DALYs, ASPR and ASIR for global nasopharyngeal cancer for the observational period (1990–2019) and the projection period (2020–2030)