Nomogram established on account of Lasso-logistic regression for predicting hemorrhagic transformation in patients with acute ischemic stroke after endovascular thrombectomy

Abstract

Background: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is a common and serious complication in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). This study was performed to determine the predictive factors associated with HT in stroke patients with EVT and to establish and validate a nomogram that combines with independent predictors to predict the probability of HT after EVT in patients with AIS.

Methods: All patients were randomly divided into development and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select the optimal factors, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to build a clinical prediction model. Calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were generated to assess predictive performance.

Results: LASSO regression analysis showed that Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Scores (ASPECTS), international normalized ratio (INR), uric acid (UA), neutrophils (NEU) were the influencing factors for AIS with HT after EVT. A novel prognostic nomogram model was established to predict the possibility of HT with AIS after EVT. The calibration curve showed that the model had good consistency. The results of ROC analysis showed that the AUC of the prediction model established in this study for predicting HT was 0.797 in the development cohort and 0.786 in the validation cohort.

Conclusion: This study proposes a novel and practical nomogram based on ASPECTS, INR, UA, NEU, which can well predict the probability of HT after EVT in patients with AIS.

Keywords: Acute ischemic stroke; Endovascular thrombectomy; Hemorrhagic transformation; Nomogram; Predictors.