Enhancing liver cirrhosis varices and CSPH risk prediction with spleen stiffness measurement using 100-Hz probe

Abstract

Managing complications of liver cirrhosis such as varices needing treatment (VNT) and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) demands precise and non-invasive diagnostic methods. This study assesses the efficacy of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) using a 100-Hz probe for predicting VNT and CSPH, aiming to refine diagnostic thresholds. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 257 cirrhotic patients, comparing the diagnostic performance of SSM against traditional criteria, including Baveno VII, for predicting VNT and CSPH. The DeLong test was used for statistical comparisons among predictive models. The success rate of SSM@100 Hz was 94.60%, and factors related to SSM failure were high body mass index and small spleen volume or length. In our cohort, the identified SSM cut-off of 38.9 kPa, which achieved a sensitivity of 92% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98% for detecting VNT, is clinically nearly identical to the established Baveno threshold of 40 kPa. The predictive capability of the SSM-based model for VNT was superior to the LSM ± PLT model (p = 0.017). For CSPH prediction, the SSM model notably outperformed existing non-invasive tests (NITs), with an AUC improvement and significant correlations with HVPG measurements (obtained from 49 patients), highlighting a correlation coefficient of 0.486 (p < 0.001) between SSM and HVPG. Therefore, incorporating SSM into clinical practice significantly enhances the prediction accuracy for both VNT and CSPH in cirrhosis patients, mainly due to the high correlation between SSM and HVPG. SSM@100 Hz can offer valuable clinical assistance in avoiding unnecessary endoscopy in these patients.

Keywords: Fibroscan 630; HVPG; Liver cirrhosis; Portal hypertension; Spleen stiffness; Varices.

Figure 1

Flow chart.

Figure 2

Incidence of new-onset variceal bleeding according to SSM cut-off.

Figure 3

Pearson correlation analysis (A) between liver stiffness and HVPG, (B) between spleen stiffness and HVPG.