HIV incidence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

Abstract

At the end of 2022, a total of 20,003 diagnoses of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and 8,983 cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) among Japanese nationals, and 3,860 HIV diagnoses and 1,575 AIDS cases among foreign residents, had been notified to the government in Japan. This study updates the estimate of HIV incidence, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. It aimed to reconstruct the incidence of HIV and understand how the disruption caused by COVID-19 affected the epidemiology of HIV. Using a median incubation period of 10.0 years, the number of undiagnosed HIV infections was estimated to be 3,209 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2,642, 3,710) at the end of 2022. This figure has declined steadily over the past 10 years. Assuming that the median incubation period was 10.0 years, the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections, including surviving AIDS cases, was 89.3% (95% CI: 87.8%, 91.0%). When AIDS cases were excluded, the proportion was 86.2% (95% CI: 84.3%, 88.3%). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the estimated annual diagnosis rate was slightly lower than during earlier time intervals, at around 16.5% (95% CI: 14.9%, 18.1%). Japan may already have achieved diagnostic coverage of 90%, given its 9% increment in the diagnosed proportion during the past 5 years. The incidence of HIV infection continued to decrease even during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, and the annual rate of diagnosis decreased slightly to 16.5%. Monitoring the recovery of diagnosis along with the effective reproduction number is vital in the future.

Keywords: AIDS; Incidence; mathematical model; pandemic; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2; statistical estimation.