Pandemic preparedness improves national-level SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data completeness: a cross-country ecologic analysis

Abstract

Background: Heterogeneity in national SARS-CoV-2 infection surveillance capabilities may compromise global enumeration and tracking of COVID-19 cases and deaths and bias analyses of the pandemic's tolls. Taking account of heterogeneity in data completeness may thus help clarify analyses of the relationship between COVID-19 outcomes and standard preparedness measures.

Methods: We examined country-level associations of pandemic preparedness capacities inventories, from the Global Health Security (GHS) Index and Joint External Evaluation (JEE), on SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 death data completion rates adjusted for income. Analyses were stratified by 100, 100-300, 300-500, and 500-700 days after the first reported case in each country. We subsequently reevaluated the relationship of pandemic preparedness on SARS-CoV-2 infection and age-standardized COVID-19 death rates adjusted for cross-country differentials in data completeness during the pre-vaccine era.

Results: Every 10% increase in the GHS Index was associated with a 14.9% (95% confidence interval 8.34-21.8%) increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection completion rate and a 10.6% (5.91-15.4%) increase in the death completion rate during the entire observation period. Disease prevention (infections: β = 1.08 [1.05-1.10], deaths: β = 1.05 [1.04-1.07]), detection (infections: β = 1.04 [1.01-1.06], deaths: β = 1.03 [1.01-1.05]), response (infections: β = 1.06 [1.00-1.13], deaths: β = 1.05 [1.00-1.10]), health system (infections: β = 1.06 [1.03-1.10], deaths: β = 1.05 [1.03-1.07]), and risk environment (infections: β = 1.27 [1.15-1.41], deaths: β = 1.15 [1.08-1.23]) were associated with both data completeness outcomes. Effect sizes of GHS Index on infection completion (Low income: β = 1.18 [1.04-1.34], Lower Middle income: β = 1.41 [1.16-1.71]) and death completion rates (Low income: β = 1.19 [1.09-1.31], Lower Middle income: β = 1.25 [1.10-1.43]) were largest in LMICs. After adjustment for cross-country differences in data completeness, each 10% increase in the GHS Index was associated with a 13.5% (4.80-21.4%) decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infection rate at 100 days and a 9.10 (1.07-16.5%) decrease at 300 days. For age-standardized COVID-19 death rates, each 10% increase in the GHS Index was with a 15.7% (5.19-25.0%) decrease at 100 days and a 10.3% (- 0.00-19.5%) decrease at 300 days.

Conclusions: Results support the pre-pandemic hypothesis that countries with greater pandemic preparedness capacities have larger SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality data completeness rates and lower COVID-19 disease burdens. More high-quality data of COVID-19 impact based on direct measurement are needed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Data completeness; Global health security; Pandemic preparedness; SARS-CoV-2.

Fig. 1

Global distribution of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 A infection completion rates and B COVID-19 death completion rates, 2020–2021. Caption: Country-level infection completion rates computed by dividing cumulative reported cases by cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections up to the end of 2021. Country-level death completion rates computed by dividing cumulative reported deaths by cumulative deaths where individuals were actively infected with COVID-19 at the time of death up to the end of 2021

Fig. 2

Relationships between the Global Health Security (GHS) Index and SARS-CoV-2 infection and death rates before and after adjustment for differences in detection during the pre-vaccine era. Caption: The infection rate panels illustrate cumulative infection rates after 300 days of the first reported case in each country. The death panels illustrate cumulative deaths rates after 300 days of the first reported death in each country. Age-standardization in panel D was conducting utilizing indirect standardization with the comparative mortality ratio approach. The blue line is a linear regression line while the shaded area is the corresponding 95% confidence interval