Population attributable fraction of total stroke associated with modifiable risk factors in the United States

Abstract

Stroke is a leading cause of death in the United States across all race/ethnicity and sex groups, though disparities exist. We investigated the potential for primary prevention of total first stroke for Americans aged 20 years or older, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Specifically, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) of first stroke for 7 potentially modifiable risk factors: smoking, physical inactivity, poor diet, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation. Population attributable fractions are a function of (1) the relative risk of first stroke for people with the exposure and (2) the prevalence of the risk factor in the population. Relative risks came from recent meta-analyses, and sex- and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence estimates came from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey or Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (for atrial fibrillation only). Approximately one-third of strokes (35.7% [95% CI, 21.6-49.0] for women; 32.7% [95% CI, 19.2-45.1] for men) were attributable to the 7 risk factors we considered. A 20% proportional reduction in stroke risk factors would result in approximately 37 000 fewer strokes annually in the United States. The estimated PAF was highest for non-Hispanic Black women (39.3%; 95% CI, 24.8-52.3) and lowest for non-Hispanic Asian men (25.5%; 95% CI, 14.6-36.2). For most groups, obesity and hypertension were the largest contributors to stroke rates.

Keywords: population attributable fraction; primary prevention; race; sex; stroke.