Relative age and biological maturity-related selection biases in male youth soccer across different competitive levels within a national association

Abstract

Objectives and methods: This study aimed to examine whether biological maturation and relative age selection biases existed and varied by level of competition (regional, national, and international) in Under-15 soccer players (n = 951) within the Swedish Football Association's male player pathway. A secondary aim was to examine the relationship between relative age and body height, body weight, predicted adult height, percentage of predicted adult height (PAH%), maturity Z-score, and biological age to chronological age offset.

Results: The results showed a significant bias (p < 0.001), ranging from trivial-to-small in favour of relatively older players, with the most notable increase between the regional and national levels. There were also significant moderate-to-large biases in favour of early maturing players (p < 0.001), increasing in magnitude with levels of competition. PAH% (p < 0.001) and body weight (p = 0.014) showed the strongest differences across selection levels, where the bias compared to regional level was 0.23 standard deviations (SD) for PAH% at national level and 0.41 SD at international level, while body weight appeared to be particularly related to international team selection (0.36 SD in bias). Relative age showed a moderate positive correlation with PAH% (r = 0.38), but only trivial correlations with all the other biological and physical variables examined (r=-0.05-0.11).

Conclusions: The lack of association between relative age and the estimates of biological maturity timing and the additional physical characteristics suggests that relative age and biological maturity are distinct constructs. We encourage critical examination of how associations select young players for national talent programmes; current practices significantly diminish the chances of selection for those who are late maturing and relatively younger.

Keywords: Biological maturation; relative age effect; talent development; talent identification; youth soccer.