Global burden of ischaemic heart disease from 2022 to 2050: projections of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years

Abstract

Aims: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) has been a significant public health issue worldwide. This study aims to predict the global burden of IHD in a timely and comprehensive manner.

Methods and results: Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for IHD from 1990 to 2021 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, and three models (linear, exponential, and Poisson regression) were used to estimate their trends over time at the global, regional, and national levels by age, sex, and country groups, with the gross domestic product per capita was applied to adjust the model. The model results revealed that the global burden of IHD is expected to increase continuously by 2050. By 2050, global IHD incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs are projected to reach 67.3 million, 510 million, 16 million, and 302 million, respectively, which represents an increase of 116%, 106%, 80%, and 62%, respectively, from 2021. Moreover, the results showed that regions with lower sociodemographic index (SDI) bore a greater burden of IHD than those with higher SDI, with men having a higher burden of IHD than women. People over 70 years old account for a major part of the burden of IHD, and premature death of IHD is also becoming more serious.

Conclusion: The global burden of IHD will increase further by 2050, potentially due to population ageing and economic disparities. Hence, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention of IHD and formulate targeted strategies according to different SDI regions and special populations.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Global disease burden; Ischaemic heart disease; Projections; Sociodemographic index.