NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures

Deborah Balk^{1

2}, Timon McPhearson^{3

4}, Elizabeth M Cook⁵, Kim Knowlton⁶, Nicole Maher⁷, Peter Marcotullio^{8

9}, Thomas Matte⁶, Richard Moss¹⁰, Luis Ortiz^{3

11}, Joel Towers^{12

13}, Jennifer Ventrella¹³, Gernot Wagner¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, New York, New York, USA.
² CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, City University of New York, New York, New York, USA.
³ Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, New York, USA.
⁴ Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, USA.
⁵ Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
⁶ Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
⁷ The Nature Conservancy, Cold Spring Harbor, New York, USA.
⁸ Institute for Sustainable Cities, Hunter College, New York, New York, USA.
⁹ City University of New York, New York, New York, USA.
¹⁰ University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.
¹¹ George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
¹² Parsons School of Design, New York, New York, USA.
¹³ The New School, New York, New York, USA.
¹⁴ Columbia Business School, New York, New York, USA.

PMID: 38924595
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.15121

Review

NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures

Deborah Balk et al. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2024 Sep.

. 2024 Sep;1539(1):277-322.

doi: 10.1111/nyas.15121. Epub 2024 Jun 25.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, New York, New York, USA.
² CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, City University of New York, New York, New York, USA.
³ Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, New York, USA.
⁴ Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, USA.
⁵ Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
⁶ Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
⁷ The Nature Conservancy, Cold Spring Harbor, New York, USA.
⁸ Institute for Sustainable Cities, Hunter College, New York, New York, USA.
⁹ City University of New York, New York, New York, USA.
¹⁰ University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.
¹¹ George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
¹² Parsons School of Design, New York, New York, USA.
¹³ The New School, New York, New York, USA.
¹⁴ Columbia Business School, New York, New York, USA.

PMID: 38924595
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.15121

Abstract

This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological-infrastructure dimensions of New York City (NYC) and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate-adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide an assessment of current approaches to "future visioning and scenarios" across community and city-level initiatives and examine diverse dimensions of the NYC urban system to reduce risk and vulnerability and enable a future-adapted NYC. Methods for the integration of community and stakeholder ideas about what would make NYC thrive with scientific and technical information on the possibilities presented by different policies and actions are discussed. This chapter synthesizes the state of knowledge on how different communities of scholarship or practice envision futures and provides brief descriptions of the social-demographic and housing, transportation, energy, nature-based, and health futures and many other subsystems of the complex system of NYC that will all interact to determine NYC futures.

Keywords: NPCC4; climate change; complex systems; futures; scenario planning.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

REFERENCES

1. New York City Panel on Climate Change. (2019). Advancing Tools and Methods for Flexible Adaptation Pathways and Science Policy Integration. Special issue: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439, 1–311.
1. Braneon, C., Ortiz, L., Bader, D., Devineni, N., Orton, P., Rosenzweig, B., McPhearson, T., Smalls‐Mantey, L., Gornitz, V., Mayo, T., Kadam, S., Sheerazi, H., Glenn, E., Yoon, L., Derras‐Chouk, A., Towers, J., Leichenko, R., Balk, D., Marcotullio, P., & Horton, R. (2024). NPCC4: New York City climate risk information 2022—observations and projections. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1539, 13–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15116
1. González, J. E., Ortiz, L., Smith, B. K., Devineni, N., Colle, B., Booth, J. F., Ravindranath, A., Rivera, L., Horton, R., Towey, K., Kushnir, Y., Manley, D., Bader, D., & Rosenzweig, C. (2019). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439, 30–70. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14007
1. Gornitz, V., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R., Orton, P., Buchanan, M., Lin, N., Horton, R., & Bader, D. (2019). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439, 71–94. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14006
1. Orton, P., Lin, N., Gornitz, V., Colle, B., Booth, J., Feng, K., Buchanan, M., Oppenheimer, M., & Patrick, L. (2019). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439, 95–114. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14011

Publication types

Actions

MeSH terms

Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources
- Ovid Technologies, Inc.
- Wiley
Medical
- MedlinePlus Health Information

Save citation to file

Email citation

Add to Collections

Add to My Bibliography

Your saved search

Create a file for external citation management software

Your RSS Feed

NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures

Affiliations

NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

References

REFERENCES

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical