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. 2024 Jun 25:12:e17527.
doi: 10.7717/peerj.17527. eCollection 2024.

Development and validation of a multi-parameter nomogram for venous thromboembolism in gastric cancer patients: a retrospective analysis

Hang Zhou #  1   2 , Haike Lei #  3 , Huai Zhao  1   2 , Kaifeng Huang  1   2 , Yundong Wang  1   2 , Ruixia Hong  1   2 , Jishun Huo  1   2 , Li Luo  1   2 , Fang Li  1   2
Affiliations

Development and validation of a multi-parameter nomogram for venous thromboembolism in gastric cancer patients: a retrospective analysis

Hang Zhou et al. PeerJ. .

Abstract

Objective: Gastric cancer (GC), one of the highest venous thromboembolism (VTE) incidence rates in cancer, contributes to considerable morbidity, mortality, and, prominently, extra cost. However, up to now, there is not a high-quality VTE model to steadily predict the risk for VTE in China. Consequently, setting up a prediction model to predict the VTE risk is imperative.

Methods: Data from 3,092 patients from December 15, 2017, to December 31, 2022, were retrospectively analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess risk factors for GC, and a nomogram was constructed based on screened risk factors. A receiver operating curve (ROC) and calibration plot was created to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram.

Results: The risk factors of suffering from VTE were older age (OR = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00-1.04]), Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) ≥ 70 (OR = 0.45, 95% CI [0.25-0.83]), Blood transfusion (OR = 2.37, 95% CI [1.47-3.84]), advanced clinical stage (OR = 3.98, 95% CI [1.59-9.99]), central venous catheterization (CVC) (OR = 4.27, 95% CI [2.03-8.99]), operation (OR = 2.72, 95% CI [1.55-4.77]), fibrinogen degradation product (FDP) >5 µg/mL (OR = 1.92, 95% CI [1.13-3.25]), and D-dimer > 0.5 mg/L (OR = 2.50, 95% CI [1.19-5.28]). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.82 in the training set and 0.85 in the validation set.

Conclusion: Our prediction model can accurately predict the risk of the appearance of VTE in gastric cancer patients and can be used as a robust and efficient tool for evaluating the possibility of VTE.

Keywords: Gastric cancer; Nomogram; Venous thromboembolism.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. The flow diagram outlining the search progress.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Nomogram (A) and online tool (B) of prediction model in gastric cancer.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Receiver operation characteristic curve of training set and validation set.
Figure 4
Figure 4. The calibration plot of training set (A) and validation set (B).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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