Polygenic risk score for blood pressure and lifestyle factors with overall and CVD mortality: a prospective cohort study in a Japanese population

Abstract

Although previous polygenic risk score (PRS) studies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) focused on incidence, few studies addressed CVD mortality and quantified risks by environmental exposures in different genetic liability groups. This prospective study aimed to examine the associations of blood pressure PRS with all-cause and CVD mortality and to quantify the attributable risk by modifiable lifestyles across different PRS strata. 9,296 participants in the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study without hypertension at baseline were analyzed in this analysis. PRS for systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (PRS_SBP and PRS_DBP) were developed using publicly available Biobank Japan GWAS summary statistics. CVD-related mortality was defined by the International Classification of Diseases 10th version (I00-I99). Cox-proportional hazard model was used to examine associations of PRSs and lifestyle variables (smoking, drinking, and dietary sodium intake) with mortality. During a median 12.6-year follow-up period, we observed 273 all-cause and 41 CVD mortality cases. Compared to the middle PRS group (20-80th percentile), adjusted hazard ratios for CVD mortality at the top PRS group ( > 90th percentile) were 3.67 for PRS_SBP and 2.92 for PRS_DBP. Attributable risks of CVD mortality by modifiable lifestyles were higher in the high PRS group ( > 80th percentile) compared with the low PRS group (0-80th percentile). In summary, blood pressure PRS is associated with CVD mortality in the general Japanese population. Our study implies that integrating PRS with lifestyle could contribute to identify target populations for lifestyle intervention even though improvement of discriminatory ability by PRS alone is limited.

Keywords: GWAS; blood pressure; cardiovascular disease; cohort study; polygenic risk score.