The Law of Diminishing Returns in the Integrated Plastic Surgery Residency Match: A Deeper Look at the Numbers

Abstract

Background: The highly competitive nature of the integrated plastic surgery residency match justifies the need for objective data that provide insights into some of the residents' selection criteria. Many studies have sought to provide information on these criteria, but to our knowledge, none has described the inflection point where the match probability does not further increase. Although our study provides this information to potential applicants, it will also help them assess and optimize their chances of a successful match.

Methods: We pooled and analyzed the data available on matched and unmatched integrated plastic surgery applicants on the national residency match program database between 2016 and 2022.

Results: Step 2 score of 250 or more (P < 0.0001), number of publications more than 15 (P = 0.0007), number of research experiences five or more (P = 0.018), number of contiguous ranks more than 10 (P < 0.0001), number of volunteer experiences five or more (P < 0.0001), being a US MD applicant (P < 0.0001), and Alpha Omega Alpha membership (P < 0.0001) were all associated with increased probability of matching into the integrated plastic surgery program. Match probability did not further increase after 15 publications, five research experiences, 15 contiguous ranks, and 10 volunteer experiences have been reached. Having a PhD (P = 0.149) or a non-PhD graduate degree (P = 0.07) was not associated with increased match probability.

Conclusion: The law of diminishing returns sets in for applicants to the integrated plastic surgery match after 15 publications, 15 contiguous ranks, five research experiences, and 10 volunteer experiences have been reached.

Fig. 1.

Probability of matching based on the number of publications compared with average match rate for all applicants of 64.9% (blue line). PUB, publication.

Fig. 2.

Probability of matching based on the number of research experiences compared with average match rate for all applicants of 73.1% (blue line). RE, research experience.

Fig. 3.

Probability of matching based on the number of contiguous ranks compared with average match rate for all applicants of 73.1% (blue line). CR, contiguous rank.

Fig. 4.

Probability of matching based on the number of volunteer experiences compared with average match rate for all applicants of 73.1% (blue line). VE, volunteer experience.

Fig. 5.

Probability of matching based on the number of work experiences compared with average match rate for all applicants of 73.1% (blue line). WE, work experience.