The global burden of breast cancer in women from 1990 to 2030: assessment and projection based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Abstract

Background and aim: This study aims to analyze the worldwide prevalence, mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to breast cancer in women between 1990 and 2019. Additionally, it seeks to forecast the future trends of these indicators related to the burden of breast cancer in women from 2020 to 2030.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 was analyzed to determine the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of DALYs due to breast cancer in women across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Socio-economic development levels of countries and regions were assessed using Socio-demographic Indexes, and trends in the burden of breast cancer in women worldwide from 2020 to 2030 were projected using generalized additive models (GAMs).

Results: The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASIR breast cancer in women globally was 0.36 from 1990 to 2019 and is expected to increase to 0.44 from 2020 to 2030. In 2019, the ASIR of breast cancer in women worldwide was 45.86 and is projected to reach 48.09 by 2030. The burden of breast cancer in women generally rises with age, with the highest burden expected in the 45-49 age group from 2020 to 2030. The fastest increase in burden is anticipated in Central sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC in the age-standardized death rate: 1.62, EAPC in the age-standardized DALY rate: 1.52), with the Solomon Islands (EAPC in the ASIR: 7.25) and China (EAPC in the ASIR: 2.83) projected to experience significant increases. Furthermore, a strong positive correlation was found between the ASIR breast cancer in women globally in 1990 and the projected rates for 2030 (r = 0.62).

Conclusion: The anticipated increase in the ASIR of breast cancer in women globally by 2030 highlights the importance of focusing on women aged 45-49 in Central sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, the Solomon Islands, and China. Initiatives such as breast cancer information registries, raising awareness of risk factors and incidence, and implementing universal screening programs and diagnostic tests are essential in reducing the burden of breast cancer and its associated morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate; age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR); breast cancer in women; estimated annual percentage change; generalized additive models; global burden of disease; projection.

Figure 1

EAPC of global burden of breast cancer in women from 2020 to 2030, by regions. (A) ASIR (B) ASDR (C) age-standardized DALY rate. EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; ASIR, age standardized incidence rate; ASDR, age standardized death rate.

Figure 2

EAPC of global burden of breast cancer in women from 1990 to 2030, by SDI Regions. (A) The EAPC of ASIR (B) The EAPC of ASDR (C) The EAPC of age-standardized DALY rate. EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; ASIR, age standardized incidence rate; ASDR, age standardized death rate.

Figure 3

EAPC of global burden of breast cancer in women from 1990 to 2019, by regions. (A) ASIR (B) ASDR (C) age-standardized DALY rate. EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; ASIR, age standardized incidence rate; ASDR, age standardized death rate.

Figure 4

The trends of incidence rate for global burden of breast cancer in women in 2019, by SDI regions and age group. (A) Incidence rate (B) Death rate (C) age-standardized DALY rate.