Construction and validation of a postoperative hypothermia prediction model in elderly patients undergoing colorectal surgery

Abstract

Background: Postoperative hypothermia (POH) is a common issue in colorectal surgery patients, leading to complications. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for identifying POH in colorectal surgery patients.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of 1,316 patients who underwent colorectal surgery between June 2020 and September 2022 was conducted using institutional medical records. Intraoperative core temperatures and potential influencing factors were collected, and regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for POH and create a model. The model's performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

Results: Intraoperative hypothermia occurred in 51.5 % of patients. Significant predictors of POH included gender, alcohol consumption, surgery duration, platelet count, and age. The constructed model included factors like fluid intake, platelets, cigarette use, alcohol consumption, surgery type, muscle relaxants, age, ABSI, and gender. The model showed good predictive performance with an area under the ROC curve of 0.981 and a Hosmer-Lemeshow test p-value of 0.676. The Youden index, sensitivity, specificity, and practical application rate were 0.602, 0.790, 0.812, and 98.81 %, respectively.

Conclusion: This study developed a predictive model for POH in colorectal surgery patients, considering individual factors and exploring underlying causes. Understanding risk factors and consequences of POH is crucial for nurses and perioperative professionals in clinical practice.

Keywords: Clinical practice; Colorectal surgery; Postoperative hypothermia; Prediction model.

Fig. 1

ROC curve of the proposed model.