Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa

Abstract

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of "Lassa-X" - a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant - and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7M (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1M-3.4M) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over ten years in 2.0M (793.8K-3.9M) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified "endemic" districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1M ($8.2M-$39.0M) in lost DALY value and $128.2M ($67.2M-$231.9M) in societal costs (International dollars 2021). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2M DALYs within two years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease, and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.