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Review
. 2024 Jun 6;11(7):ofae318.
doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofae318. eCollection 2024 Jul.

Lower Prevalence Countries Outside of South-Eastern Africa Now Have the Fastest Growing HIV Epidemic

Toby Pepperrell  1 , Andrew Hill  2 , Samuel Cross  3
Affiliations
Review

Lower Prevalence Countries Outside of South-Eastern Africa Now Have the Fastest Growing HIV Epidemic

Toby Pepperrell et al. Open Forum Infect Dis. .

Abstract

The United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) targets aim to reduce new HIV infections below 370 000 annually by 2025. However, there were 1.3 million new HIV infections worldwide in 2022. We collected and analyzed data for key variables of the HIV epidemic from UNAIDS and supplemented by PUBMED/EMBASE searches and national reports. A total of 53% of the HIV infections worldwide were in 14 high-prevalence countries in Southern/East Africa-where most of the funding for treatment and prevention is allocated-versus 47% in 54 low-prevalence countries. In 2022, there were more new HIV infections (770 000 vs 468 000), more HIV-related deaths (383 000 vs 225 000), higher rates of mother-to-child transmissions (16% vs 9%) and lower antiretroviral therapy coverage (67% vs 83%) in low-prevalence countries versus high-prevalence countries. To achieve UNAIDS annual new infections target for 2025, ART coverage needs to be optimized worldwide, and preexposure prophylaxis coverage expanded to 74 million people, versus 2.5 million currently treated.

Keywords: ART; HIV; epidemic; incidence; prevalence.

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Conflict of interest statement

Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Prevalence of HIV by country. High-prevalence countries (HPCs) (≥3.5%) vs low prevalence countries (LPCs) (<3.5%).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Epidemic growth rate by country by quartile. Epidemic growth rate is the number of new infections divided by epidemic size in 2022.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Epidemic growth rate (y-axis) versus prevalence (x-axis), weighted by epidemic size.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage by country.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Percentage of people With HIV (PWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) (y-axis) versus prevalence (x-axis).
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) (y-axis) versus prevalence (x-axis), weighted by epidemic size.
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
Combined annual revenue of HIV drug sales.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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