Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale

László Makra¹, Luca Coviello^{2

3}, Andrea Gobbi⁴, Giuseppe Jurman⁴, Cesare Furlanello^{5

6}, Mauro Brunato⁷, Lewis H Ziska⁸, Jeremy J Hess⁹, Athanasios Damialis¹⁰, Maria Pilar Plaza Garcia¹¹, Gábor Tusnády¹², Lilit Czibolya¹, István Ihász¹³, Áron József Deák¹, Edit Mikó¹⁴, Zita Dorner¹⁵, Susan K Harry¹⁶, Nicolas Bruffaerts¹⁷, Ann Packeu¹⁷, Annika Saarto¹⁸, Linnea Toiviainen¹⁸, Maria Louna-Korteniemi¹⁸, Sanna Pätsi¹⁸, Michel Thibaudon¹⁹, Gilles Oliver¹⁹, Athanasios Charalampopoulos¹⁰, Despoina Vokou¹⁰, Ewa Maria Przedpelska-Wasowicz²⁰, Ellý Renée Guðjohnsen²⁰, Maira Bonini²¹, Sevcan Celenk²², Cumali Ozaslan²³, Jae-Won Oh²⁴, Krista Sullivan²⁵, Linda Ford²⁶, Michelle Kelly²⁶, Estelle Levetin²⁷, Dorota Myszkowska²⁸, Elena Severova²⁹, Regula Gehrig³⁰, María Del Carmen Calderón-Ezquerro³¹, César Guerrero Guerra³¹, Manuel Andres Leiva-Guzmán³², Germán Darío Ramón³³, Laura Beatriz Barrionuevo³⁴, Jonny Peter³⁵, Dilys Berman³⁶, Connie H Katelaris³⁷, Janet M Davies^{38

39}, Pamela Burton⁴⁰, Paul J Beggs⁴¹, Sandra María Vergamini⁴², Rosa María Valencia-Barrera⁴³, Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann^{44

45

46}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezővásárhely, Hungary.
² University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
³ Enogis s.r.l., Trento, Italy.
⁴ Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
⁵ HK3 Lab, Rovereto, Italy.
⁶ LIGHT Center, Brescia, Italy.
⁷ Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
⁸ Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
⁹ Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, State of Washington, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
¹¹ Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University Clinic of Augsburg & University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany.
¹² Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Budapest, Hungary.
¹³ Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary.
¹⁴ Institute of Animal Science and Wildlife Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezővásárhely, Hungary.
¹⁵ Department of Integrated Plant Protection, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Science (MATE) (former SZIE), Plant Protection Institute, Gödöllő, Hungary.
¹⁶ Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA.
¹⁷ Mycology & Aerobiology Service, Brussels, Belgium.
¹⁸ Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
¹⁹ Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique, Brussieu, France.
²⁰ Icelandic Institute of Natural History, Garðabær, Iceland.
²¹ Department of Hygiene and Health Prevention, ATS (Agency for Health Protection of Metropolitan Area of Milan), Hygiene and Public Health Service, Milan, Italy.
²² Science and Art Faculty, Biology Department, Aerobiology Laboratory, Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey.
²³ Department of Plant Protection (Weed Science), Dicle University, Diyarbakir, Turkey.
²⁴ Department of Pediatrics & Adolescent, College of Medicine, Hanyang University, Medical Center, Guri Hospital, Seoul, South Korea.
²⁵ Clinical Research Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
²⁶ Asthma and Allergy Center, Bellevue, Nebraska, USA.
²⁷ University of Tulsa, College of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Department of Biological Science, Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA.
²⁸ Jagiellonian University, Medical College, Department of Clinical and Environmental Allergology, Kraków, Poland.
²⁹ Biological Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
³⁰ Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland.
³¹ Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, México, Mexico.
³² Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
³³ Hospital Italiano Regional del Sur, Bahía Blanca, Argentina.
³⁴ Instituto de Alergia e Inmunologia del Sur, AAAeIC Pollen Station, Bahía Blanca, Argentina.
³⁵ Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Groote Schuur, South Africa.
³⁶ Allergy Immunology Department, University of Cape Town Lung Institute, Cape Town, South Africa.
³⁷ Western Sydney University and Campbelltown Hospital, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia.
³⁸ School of Biomedical Science, Queensland University of Technology, Herston, Queensland, Australia.
³⁹ Office of Research, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Herston, Queensland, Australia.
⁴⁰ Department of Medicine, Immunology and Allergy, Campbelltown Hospital, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia.
⁴¹ School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
⁴² Centro de Ciȇncias Biológicas e da Saúde, Museu de Ciȇncias Naturais, University of Caxias do Sul, Caxias do Sul, Brazil.
⁴³ Departamento de Biología Vegetal, Universidad de León, León, Spain.
⁴⁴ Chair of Environmental Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Augsburg, Germany.
⁴⁵ Institute of Environmental Medicine, Helmholtz Centre, Munich, Augsburg, Germany.
⁴⁶ Department of Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany.

PMID: 38995241
DOI: 10.1111/all.16227

Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale

László Makra et al. Allergy. 2024 Aug.

. 2024 Aug;79(8):2173-2185.

doi: 10.1111/all.16227. Epub 2024 Jul 12.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezővásárhely, Hungary.
² University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
³ Enogis s.r.l., Trento, Italy.
⁴ Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
⁵ HK3 Lab, Rovereto, Italy.
⁶ LIGHT Center, Brescia, Italy.
⁷ Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science, University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
⁸ Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
⁹ Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, State of Washington, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
¹¹ Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University Clinic of Augsburg & University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany.
¹² Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Budapest, Hungary.
¹³ Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary.
¹⁴ Institute of Animal Science and Wildlife Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezővásárhely, Hungary.
¹⁵ Department of Integrated Plant Protection, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Science (MATE) (former SZIE), Plant Protection Institute, Gödöllő, Hungary.
¹⁶ Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA.
¹⁷ Mycology & Aerobiology Service, Brussels, Belgium.
¹⁸ Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
¹⁹ Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique, Brussieu, France.
²⁰ Icelandic Institute of Natural History, Garðabær, Iceland.
²¹ Department of Hygiene and Health Prevention, ATS (Agency for Health Protection of Metropolitan Area of Milan), Hygiene and Public Health Service, Milan, Italy.
²² Science and Art Faculty, Biology Department, Aerobiology Laboratory, Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey.
²³ Department of Plant Protection (Weed Science), Dicle University, Diyarbakir, Turkey.
²⁴ Department of Pediatrics & Adolescent, College of Medicine, Hanyang University, Medical Center, Guri Hospital, Seoul, South Korea.
²⁵ Clinical Research Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
²⁶ Asthma and Allergy Center, Bellevue, Nebraska, USA.
²⁷ University of Tulsa, College of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Department of Biological Science, Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA.
²⁸ Jagiellonian University, Medical College, Department of Clinical and Environmental Allergology, Kraków, Poland.
²⁹ Biological Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
³⁰ Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland.
³¹ Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, México, Mexico.
³² Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
³³ Hospital Italiano Regional del Sur, Bahía Blanca, Argentina.
³⁴ Instituto de Alergia e Inmunologia del Sur, AAAeIC Pollen Station, Bahía Blanca, Argentina.
³⁵ Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Groote Schuur, South Africa.
³⁶ Allergy Immunology Department, University of Cape Town Lung Institute, Cape Town, South Africa.
³⁷ Western Sydney University and Campbelltown Hospital, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia.
³⁸ School of Biomedical Science, Queensland University of Technology, Herston, Queensland, Australia.
³⁹ Office of Research, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Herston, Queensland, Australia.
⁴⁰ Department of Medicine, Immunology and Allergy, Campbelltown Hospital, Campbelltown, New South Wales, Australia.
⁴¹ School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
⁴² Centro de Ciȇncias Biológicas e da Saúde, Museu de Ciȇncias Naturais, University of Caxias do Sul, Caxias do Sul, Brazil.
⁴³ Departamento de Biología Vegetal, Universidad de León, León, Spain.
⁴⁴ Chair of Environmental Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Augsburg, Germany.
⁴⁵ Institute of Environmental Medicine, Helmholtz Centre, Munich, Augsburg, Germany.
⁴⁶ Department of Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany.

PMID: 38995241
DOI: 10.1111/all.16227

Erratum in

Correction to "Forecasting Daily Total Pollen Concentrations on a Global Scale".
[No authors listed] [No authors listed] Allergy. 2025 Jun;80(6):1822-1824. doi: 10.1111/all.16577. Epub 2025 May 6. Allergy. 2025. PMID: 40326766 No abstract available.

Abstract

Background: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts.

Methods: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values.

Results: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R²(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R²(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R²(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R²(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan.

Conclusions: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

Keywords: allergy; artificial intelligence; environmental variables; feature importance cluster; pollen forecast.

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References

REFERENCES

1. Masoli M, Fabian D, Holt S, Beasley R. The global burden of asthma: executive summary of the GINA dissemination committee report. Allergy. 2004;59:469‐478.
1. World Allergy Organisation. In: Pawankar R, Canonica GW, Holgate S, Lockey RF, eds. White Book on Allergy: Update 2013. World Allergy Organization; 2013.
1. National Asthma Council Australia. Updated Asthma Charts for Health Professionals. Accessed June 25, 2023. http://www.nationalasthma.org.au
1. GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392:1789‐1858.
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Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale

Affiliations

Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale

Authors

Affiliations

Erratum in

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REFERENCES

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