A novel tool for arrhythmic risk stratification in desmoplakin gene variant carriers

Abstract

Background and aims: Pathogenic desmoplakin (DSP) gene variants are associated with the development of a distinct form of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy known as DSP cardiomyopathy. Patients harbouring these variants are at high risk for sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VA), but existing tools for individualized arrhythmic risk assessment have proven unreliable in this population.

Methods: Patients from the multi-national DSP-ERADOS (Desmoplakin SPecific Effort for a RAre Disease Outcome Study) Network patient registry who had pathogenic or likely pathogenic DSP variants and no sustained VA prior to enrolment were followed longitudinally for the development of first sustained VA event. Clinically guided, step-wise Cox regression analysis was used to develop a novel clinical tool predicting the development of incident VA. Model performance was assessed by c-statistic in both the model development cohort (n = 385) and in an external validation cohort (n = 86).

Results: In total, 471 DSP patients [mean age 37.8 years, 65.6% women, 38.6% probands, 26% with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 50%] were followed for a median of 4.0 (interquartile range: 1.6-7.3) years; 71 experienced first sustained VA events {2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0, 3.5] events/year}. Within the development cohort, five readily available clinical parameters were identified as independent predictors of VA and included in a novel DSP risk score: female sex [hazard ratio (HR) 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.4)], history of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia [HR 1.7 (95% CI: 1.1-2.8)], natural logarithm of 24-h premature ventricular contraction burden [HR 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.4)], LVEF < 50% [HR 1.5 (95% CI: .95-2.5)], and presence of moderate to severe right ventricular systolic dysfunction [HR 6.0 (95% CI: 2.9-12.5)]. The model demonstrated good risk discrimination within both the development [c-statistic .782 (95% CI: .77-.80)] and external validation [c-statistic .791 (95% CI: .75-.83)] cohorts. The negative predictive value for DSP patients in the external validation cohort deemed to be at low risk for VA (<5% at 5 years; n = 26) was 100%.

Conclusions: The DSP risk score is a novel model that leverages readily available clinical parameters to provide individualized VA risk assessment for DSP patients. This tool may help guide decision-making for primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement in this high-risk population and supports a gene-first risk stratification approach.

Keywords: ACM; ARVC; DSP; DSP cardiomyopathy; ICD; Risk prediction; Sudden cardiac death; VA.

Structured Graphical Abstract

The desmoplakin risk score provides individualized predictions of 5-year ventricular arrhythmia risk in patients with pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) desmoplakin variants based on five readily available clinical risk factors (www.dsp-risk.com). The desmoplakin risk score demonstrated strong discrimination of ventricular arrhythmia risk (c-statistic .79 during external validation) and accurately stratifies patients into low- (0%–5% risk at 5 years), intermediate- (5%–20% risk at 5 years), and high-risk (>20% risk at 5 years) groups for the purposes of guiding primary prevention implantable cardiac defibrillator decision-making. DSP, desmoplakin; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; NSVT, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia; PVC, premature ventricular contraction; RV, right ventricular; VA, ventricular arrhythmia.

Figure 1

Flowchart showing patient selection for the model development and external model validation cohorts. VA, ventricular arrhythmia

Figure 2

Kaplan–Meier curve showing survival free from sustained ventricular arrhythmia events in the overall cohort. Lighter shading represents 95% confidence intervals

Figure 3

Relationships between the hazard of sustained ventricular arrhythmia events and cut-offs for converting continuous variables to dichotomous variables for (A) 24-h premature ventricular contraction burden, (B) number of inferior and anterior electrocardiogram leads with T-wave inversion, (C) right ventricular systolic dysfunction, and (D) left ventricular ejection fraction. In each case, the hazard for ventricular arrhythmia is assessed relative to normal values of the particular variable. LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; PVC, premature ventricular contraction; RV, right ventricular; TWI, T-wave inversion; VA, ventricular arrhythmia