The value of presepsin and procalcitonin as prognostic factors for mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and acute on chronic liver failure

Abstract

Background: Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is typically characterized by a rapid progression of liver failure in patients with liver cirrhosis and it is triggered by a precipitant factor, usually a bacterial infection (BI). Considering the low accuracy of the inflammation biomarkers in liver cirrhosis, presepsin and procalcitonin have demonstrated a good diagnostic performance for BI. Understanding the key prognostic factors that influence patient outcomes can significantly impact clinical decision-making and improve patient care in ACLF which can lead to lower mortality rates. Aim: To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with 30-day mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and ACLF. Methods: This retrospective study on 227 patients diagnosed with ACLF and alcohol-related liver cirrhosis analyzed the prognostic role of presepsin and procalcitonin serum levels. Results: The survival analysis according to the grade of ACLF showed that more than 80% of patients with ACLF grade 1 survived after 30 days, with a mean estimated time of death of 29 ±0.44 days (95 % CI: 28.17-29.92) compared to ACLF grade 2 (24.9±1.064 days; 95 % CI: 22.82-26.99) and ACLF grade 3 (21.05±1.17 days; 95 % CI: 18.75-23.34), with a mean overall survival on entire cohort of 25.69±0.52 days (95 % CI: 24.65-26.73). Presepsin (OR: 4.008, CI 95:3.130-6.456, p=0.001) and procalcitonin (OR: 3.666, CI 95:2.312-5.813, p=0.001) were the most significant factors associated with 30-day mortality. In ACLF grade 2, presepsin provides a better prediction of mortality at the cutoff value of 1050 pg/mL (Sensitivity 72%, Specificity 69%) than procalcitonin (AUC=0.727 95% CI 0.594-0.860, p<0.002) whereas in ACLF grade 3, a cutoff of 1450 pg/mL (Sensitivity 89%, Specificity 91%) presepsin had a more significant accuracy of mortality prediction (AUC=0.93 95% CI 0.81-0.99, p<0.001) than procalcitonin (AUC=0.731 95% CI 0.655-0.807, p<0.001). Conclusion: ACLF is associated with a high mortality rate and the risk of death increases with the grade of ACLF. Presepsin and procalcitonin serum levels are good prognostic factors for 30-day mortality and should be used in clinical practice to stratify the risk and provide and early and efficient treatment in patients with ACLF.

Keywords: acute on chronic liver failure; liver cirrhosis; mortality; presepsin; procalcitonin; prognostic factors.

Fig. 1

Flow chart of patients' selection process.

Fig. 2

Comparison of presepsin and procalcitonin in predicting 30-day mortality in ACLF grade 1.

Fig. 3

Comparison of presepsin and procalcitonin in predicting 30-day mortality in ACLF grade 2.

Fig. 4

Comparison of presepsin and procalcitonin in predicting 30-day mortality in ACLF grade 3.

Fig. 5

Kaplan-Meier analysis curve of mortality according to ACLF grade.