Update and projections for New Zealand's ophthalmology workforce

Abstract

Aim: The aim of this study was to update and project the growth of ophthalmologists in New Zealand. This will help decision makers better understand the current ophthalmologist workforce and make appropriate resource allocations.

Method: Supply and demographics of ophthalmologists in New Zealand were obtained from the Medical Council of New Zealand, Health Workforce New Zealand and Health New Zealand - Te Whatu Ora. Ophthalmology trainee numbers were extracted from the annual reports of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists (RANZCO). New Zealand population statistics were extracted from the Stats NZ database. A simulation model was developed to project the growth of ophthalmologists from 2024 to 2050.

Results: In March 2023, there were 175 practising ophthalmologists in New Zealand. Overall, there were 34.0 ophthalmologists per million population, with 201.4 ophthalmologists per million for those aged ≥65 years. To maintain the current ratio, an additional 20 practising ophthalmologists are needed by 2050.

Conclusion: The ratio of ophthalmologists per million population aged ≥65 years is projected to drop by 1.5% annually. To meet the demand of an increasing and ageing population, and RANZCO's goal of 40 ophthalmologists per million population, there needs to be an increase in ophthalmologist training positions from the current 5-year average of 6.6 to 11 new trainees annually, and a more effective distribution of the ophthalmologist workforce.