Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Jul;9(7):103635.
doi: 10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635. Epub 2024 Jul 23.

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

S Guzzinati  1 , F Toffolutti  2 , S Francisci  3 , A De Paoli  4 , F Giudici  2 , R De Angelis  5 , E Demuru  5 , L Botta  6 , A Tavilla  3 , G Gatta  6 , R Capocaccia  7 , M Zorzi  4 , A Caldarella  8 , E Bidoli  2 , F Falcini  9 , R Bruni  10 , E Migliore  11 , A Puppo  12 , M Ferrante  13 , C Gasparotti  14 , M L Gambino  15 , G Carrozzi  16 , F Bianconi  17 , A Musolino  18 , R Cavallo  19 , W Mazzucco  20 , M Fusco  21 , P Ballotari  22 , G Sampietro  23 , S Ferretti  24 , L Mangone  25 , W Mantovani  26 , M Mian  27 , G Cascone  28 , F Manzoni  29 , R Galasso  30 , D Piras  31 , M T Pesce  32 , F Bella  33 , P Seghini  34 , A C Fanetti  35 , P Pinna  36 , D Serraino  2 , S Rossi  5 , L Dal Maso  37 ; AIRTUM Working Group
Collaborators, Affiliations

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

S Guzzinati et al. ESMO Open. 2024 Jul.

Abstract

Background: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.

Materials and methods: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.

Results: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).

Conclusions: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

Keywords: Italy; cancer cure; cancer survivors; complete prevalence; projections.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Complete cancer prevalence (proportions) in Italy from 2006ato 2030 by years since diagnosis.aData for 2006 and 2010 were obtained from Guzzinati et al. Filled symbols (closed circles) and solid lines represent estimated observed values, while empty symbols (open circles) and dotted lines represent projected values.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Complete cancer prevalence and cure prevalence (CurePrev; green area)aby years since diagnosisinItaly, 2018. aCurePrev for cases alive after N years can be interpreted as the ‘residual’ proportion of patients who will not die of their disease. Squares include people alive at least 5 years after diagnosis (olive), at least 10 years (blue), and at least 15 years after diagnosis (red). Corresponding proportions include patients who will not die from the disease in each group.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Guzzinati S., Virdone S., De Angelis R., et al. Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020. BMC Cancer. 2018;18:169. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Miller K.D., Nogueira L., Mariotto A.B., et al. Cancer treatment and survivorship statistics, 2019. CA Cancer J Clin. 2019;5:363–385. - PubMed
    1. Lawler M., De Lorenzo F., Lagergren P., et al. Challenges and solutions to embed cancer survivorship research and innovation within the EU Cancer Mission. Mol Oncol. 2021;15:1750–1758. - PMC - PubMed
    1. De Angelis R., Demuru E., Baili P., et al. Complete cancer prevalence in Europe 2020 by disease duration and country: results from the EUROCARE-6 study. Lancet Oncol. 2024;25:293–307. - PubMed
    1. SEER∗Explorer: an interactive website for SEER cancer statistics. Surveillance Research Program, National Cancer Institute https://seer.cancer.gov/statistics-network/explorer/ ; 2023 April 19. [updated: 2023 Jun 8; cited 2023 Jul 10]. Available at.