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. 2024;11(4):1013-1021.
doi: 10.14283/jpad.2024.21.

Global Burden of Dementia Death from 1990 to 2019, with Projections to 2050: An Analysis of 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Z Li  1 , N Yang, L He, J Wang, Y Yang, F Ping, L Xu, H Zhang, W Li, Y Li
Affiliations

Global Burden of Dementia Death from 1990 to 2019, with Projections to 2050: An Analysis of 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Z Li et al. J Prev Alzheimers Dis. 2024.

Abstract

Background: Dementia is a growing global health challenge. Quantifying the current burden and predicting the future increases of dementia-related deaths are necessary to enhance effective policy decisions and health system planning.

Methods: Data on dementia mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 study. The 2020-2050 dementia-related deaths were forecasted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: Globally, the number of dementia-related death increased from 0.56 million in 1990 to 1.62 million in 2019 and were estimated to increase to 4.91 million by the year 2050. Metabolic risk factors would become the most important modifiable risk factors affecting dementia death which account for 28.10% of dementia related death by the year 2050. For different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, the low SDI region would have the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (29.16 per 100,000) by 2050. Moreover, the number of dementia-related deaths under the age of 70 years was predicted to reach 0.18 million by 2050.

Conclusions: Dementia related death remains a global health problem, and health policies targeting metabolic risk factors may be an important way to alleviate this problem.

Keywords: Dementia; global burden of disease; metabolic risk factors; mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

No potential conflicts of interest relevant to this article were reported.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global dementia death and dementia death attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2050. (A) The number of global dementia death and dementia death attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2050; (B) The age-standardized mortality rate of dementia and dementia death attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2050; (C) Variation value of all dementia ASMR and risk factor induced dementia death rate during 1990–2019; (D) Variation value of all dementia ASMR and risk factor induced dementia death rate during 2019–2050; (E) The PAF of dementia death for modifiable risk factors PAF: population attributable fraction. ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The trend of ASMR and number of dementia death and modifiable risk factors induced dementia death during 1990–2050. (A) The trend of ASMR of dementia death and modifiable risk factors induced dementia death during 1990–2050; (B) The trend of number of dementia death and modifiable risk factors induced dementia death during 1990–2050 ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Dementia deaths in countries and territories by the year 1990, 2019 and 2050. (A) The ASMR of dementia deaths in countries and territories by the year 1990, 2019 and 2050; (B) The number of dementia deaths in countries and territories by the year 1990, 2019 and 2050 ASMR: age-standardized rate.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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