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. 2024 Sep;14(3):1191-1201.
doi: 10.1007/s44197-024-00273-x. Epub 2024 Jul 30.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Incidence of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China Based on SARIMA Models Between 2013 and 2021

Jingwen Liu #  1 , Wu Zeng #  2 , Chao Zhuo  3 , Yu Liu  1 , Lei Zhu  4 , Guanyang Zou  5
Affiliations

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Incidence of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China Based on SARIMA Models Between 2013 and 2021

Jingwen Liu et al. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024 Sep.

Abstract

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government implemented nationwide public health interventions to control its spread. However, the impact of these measures on other infectious diseases remains unclear.

Methods: The incidence of three types of notifiable infectious diseases in China were analyzed between 2013 and 2021. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test and Mann-Kendall mutation test were employed to examine trends and mutations in the time series. Based on the counterfactual inference, historical incidence rates were employed to construct SARIMA models and predict incidence between January 2020 and December 2021. Differences between reported and predicted incidences during the pandemic were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test.

Results: Between 2013 and 2019, the incidence rate of three types of notifiable infectious diseases fluctuated between 494.05/100,000 and 550.62/100,000. No discernible trend was observed for types A and B infectious diseases (Z = -1.344, P = 0.18). A significant upward trend was observed for type C infectious diseases (Z = 2.56, P = 0.01). In 2020, the overall incidence rate of three types of notifiable infectious diseases decreased to 367.08/100,000. Compared to predicted values, the reported incidence of three types of infectious diseases was, on average, 30.05% lower in 2020 and 16.58% lower in 2021.

Conclusion: The public health interventions implemented during the pandemic had a positive consequence on the prevention and control of other infectious diseases, with a particularly notable effect on type C infectious diseases. Among the diseases with different transmission routes, respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases decreased significantly.

Keywords: ARIMA; COVID-19; Epidemiology; Mathematical modelling; Public health.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Difference between reported and predicted incidences for types A B and C notifiable infectious diseases. The black lines represent reported values. The blue line represents predicted values
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Difference between reported and predicted incidences for types A and B notifiable infectious disease. The black lines represent reported values. The blue line represents predicted values
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Difference between reported and predicted incidences for type C notifiable infectious disease. The black lines represent reported values. The blue line represents predicted values
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Difference between reported and predicted incidences for infectious diseases with different transmission routes. The black lines represent reported values. The blue line represents predicted values
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