Predictive value of inflammation and nutritional index in immunotherapy for stage IV non-small cell lung cancer and model construction

Abstract

Identifying individuals poised to gain from immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapies is a pivotal element in the realm of tailored healthcare. The expression level of Programmed Death Ligand 1 (PD-L1) has been linked to the response to ICI therapy, but its assessment typically requires substantial tumor tissue, which can be challenging to obtain. In contrast, blood samples are more feasible for clinical application. A number of promising peripheral biomarkers have been proposed to overcome this hurdle. This research aims to evaluate the prognostic utility of the albumin-to-lactate dehydrogenase ratio (LAR), the Pan-immune-inflammation Value (PIV), and the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) in predicting the response to ICI therapy in individuals with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Furthermore, the study seeks to construct a predictive nomogram that includes these markers to facilitate the selection of patients with a higher likelihood of benefiting from ICI therapy. A research initiative scrutinized the treatment records of 157 advanced NSCLC patients who received ICI therapy across two Jiangxi medical centers. The cohort from Jiangxi Provincial People's Hospital (comprising 108 patients) was utilized for the training dataset, while the contingent from Jiangxi Cancer Hospital (49 patients) served for validation purposes. Stratification was based on established LAR, PIV, and PNI benchmarks to explore associations with DCR and ORR metrics. Factorial influences on ICI treatment success were discerned through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Subsequently, a Nomogram was devised to forecast outcomes, its precision gauged by ROC and calibration curves, DCA analysis, and cross-institutional validation. In the training group, the optimal threshold values for LAR, PIV, and PNI were identified as 5.205, 297.49, and 44.6, respectively. Based on these thresholds, LAR, PIV, and PNI were categorized into high (≥ Cut-off) and low (< Cut-off) groups. Patients with low LAR (L-LAR), low PIV (L-PIV), and high PNI (H-PNI) exhibited a higher disease control rate (DCR) (P < 0.05) and longer median progression-free survival (PFS) (P < 0.05). Cox multivariate analysis indicated that PS, malignant pleural effusion, liver metastasis, high PIV (H-PIV), and low PNI (L-PNI) were risk factors adversely affecting the efficacy of immunotherapy (P < 0.05). The Nomogram model predicted a concordance index (C-index) of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84). The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for the training group at 6, 9, and 12 months were 0.900, 0.869, and 0.866, respectively, while the AUCs for the external validation group at the same time points were 0.800, 0.886, and 0.801, respectively. Throughout immunotherapy, PIV and PNI could act as prospective indicators for forecasting treatment success in NSCLC patients, while the devised Nomogram model exhibits strong predictive performance for patient prognoses.

Keywords: Immunotherapy; LAR; NSCLC; Nomogram model; PIV; PNI.

Figure 1

Relationship between LAR, PIV, PNI, and PFS in two groups.

Figure 2

A nomogram for the prediction of probability of PFS at 6, 9, and 12 months.

Figure 3

ROC curves for the training group (A) and the validation group (B) at 6 months, 9 months, and 12 months.

Figure 4

Calibration curves for the probability of PFS at 6 months (A), 9 months (B), and 12 months (C) in the training cohort, as well as at 6 months (D), 9 months (E), and 12 months (F) in the validation cohort.

Figure 5

DCA graphs depicting PFS forecasts at intervals of 6, 9, and 12 months were constructed for both the training cohort (A) and the validation cohort (B).