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. 2024 Aug 2:14:04119.
doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04119.

Trend and projection of the prevalence and burden of near vision loss in China and globally from 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

Yanxin Xu #  1 , Yan Mao #  2 , Xuming Lin #  3 , Zongyin Gao  1 , Xiaoting Ruan  3
Affiliations

Trend and projection of the prevalence and burden of near vision loss in China and globally from 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

Yanxin Xu et al. J Glob Health. .

Abstract

Background: Few studies have investigated near vision loss (NVL) in China. To address this gap, we aimed to explore trends in the prevalence and disease burden of NVL from 1990 to 2019 and to predict trends over the next decade.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we calculated the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percentage change (EAPC) in China and different regions. We then used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) predictive model to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in both contexts.

Results: At the global level, ASPRs increased from 5613.27 in 1990 to 5937.81 per 100 000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.06. The ASPR in China specifically decreased from 7538.14 in 1990 to 7392.86 per 100 000 population in 2019 (EAPC = -0.02). The age-standardised DALY rate was higher in women than in men, both globally and in China. The NVL burden was relatively higher in low-income regions, low sociodemographic index regions, and the South-East Asia Region compared to other regions. The predictive model indicated that the ASR trend for NVL slowly increased at a global level after 2020, yet decreased in China.

Conclusions: Despite a decline in the age-standardised prevalence of NVL in China over the next decade, the current burden remains substantial. To alleviate this burden, decision-makers should adopt inclusive approaches by involving all stakeholders.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure of interest: The authors completed the ICMJE Disclosure of Interest Form (available upon request from the corresponding author) and disclose no relevant interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Prevalent cases, prevalence rates, and age-standardised prevalence rates of NVL from 1990 to 2019, globally (panels A, B, and C) and in China (panels D, E, and F).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age-specific prevalence rate and DALYs rate of NVL by age and gender in 2019, globally (panels A and B) and in China (panels c and D). DALY – disability-adjusted life year.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Global map of the age-standardised prevalence rate of NVL in 1990 (panel A) and 2019 (panel B); age-standardised DALYs rate in 1990 (panel C) and 2019 (panel D); annual percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence rate (panel E); and DALY rate (panel F) from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Age-standardised prevalence rate and burden of NVL in 1990–2019 by WHO regions (panels A and (B); levels of income regions (panels C and (D); and levels of SDI regions (panels E and (F). SDI – sociodemographic index.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The change in trends of the NVL-related disease burden by sex from 1990 to 2030, globally (in women (panel A) and men (panel B)) and in China (in women (panel C) and men (panel D)).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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