Machine learning models including preoperative and postoperative albumin-bilirubin score: short-term outcomes among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background: We sought to assess the impact of various perioperative factors on the risk of severe complications and post-surgical mortality using a novel maching learning technique.

Methods: Data on patients undergoing resection for HCC were obtained from an international, multi-institutional database between 2000 and 2020. Gradient boosted trees were utilized to construct predictive models.

Results: Among 962 patients who underwent HCC resection, the incidence of severe postoperative complications was 12.7% (n = 122); in-hospital mortality was 2.9% (n = 28). Models that exclusively used preoperative data achieved AUC values of 0.89 (95%CI 0.85 to 0.92) and 0.90 (95%CI 0.84 to 0.96) to predict severe complications and mortality, respectively. Models that combined preoperative and postoperative data achieved AUC values of 0.93 (95%CI 0.91 to 0.96) and 0.92 (95%CI 0.86 to 0.97) for severe morbidity and mortality, respectively. The SHAP algorithm demonstrated that the factor most strongly predictive of severe morbidity and mortality was postoperative day 1 and 3 albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores.

Conclusion: Incorporation of perioperative data including ALBI scores using ML techniques can help risk-stratify patients undergoing resection of HCC.