Introducing prediction intervals for sample means

Abstract

Researchers and practitioners are typically familiar with descriptive statistics and statistical inference. However, outside of regression techniques, little attention may be given to questions around prediction. In the current paper, we introduce prediction intervals using fundamental concepts that are learned in descriptive and inferential statistical training (i.e., sampling error, standard deviation). We walk through an example using simple hand calculations and reference a simple R package that can be used to calculate prediction intervals.

Keywords: biostatistics; education; prediction intervals; research methodology.

Figure 1

Population and sampling distribution of the mean.

Figure 2

Sampling distributions with two different sample sizes.