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. 2024 Sep;30(9):1865-1871.
doi: 10.3201/eid3009.240082.

Use of Open-Source Epidemic Intelligence for Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Ukraine, 2022

Anjali Kannan, Rosalie Chen, Zubair Akhtar, Braidy Sutton, Ashley Quigley, Margaret J Morris, C Raina MacIntyre

Use of Open-Source Epidemic Intelligence for Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Ukraine, 2022

Anjali Kannan et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2024 Sep.

Abstract

Formal infectious disease surveillance in Ukraine has been disrupted by Russia's 2022 invasion, leading to challenges with tracking and containing epidemics. To analyze the effects of the war on infectious disease epidemiology, we used open-source data from EPIWATCH, an artificial intelligence early-warning system. We analyzed patterns of infectious diseases and syndromes before (November 1, 2021-February 23, 2022) and during (February 24-July 31, 2022) the conflict. We compared case numbers for the most frequently reported diseases with numbers from formal sources and found increases in overall infectious disease reports and in case numbers of cholera, botulism, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, rabies, and salmonellosis during compared with before the invasion. During the conflict, although open-source intelligence captured case numbers for epidemics, such data (except for diphtheria) were unavailable/underestimated by formal surveillance. In the absence of formal surveillance during military conflicts, open-source data provide epidemic intelligence useful for infectious disease control.

Keywords: Ukraine; artificial intelligence; bacteria; epidemics; open source; outbreaks; viruses; zoonoses.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Daily EPIWATCH (https://www.epiwatch.org) reports of outbreaks in Ukraine before and during Russia’s invasion, November 1, 2021–July 31, 2022.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Comparison of daily EPIWATCH (https://www.epiwatch.org) reports of outbreaks in Ukraine during Russia’s invasion (February 24, 2022–July 31, 2022) and in the same period of the previous year (February 24, 2021–July 31, 2021).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Number of reports of clinical syndromes per day before and during Russia’s invasion, Ukraine, November 1, 2021—July 31, 2022.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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