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. 2024 Nov 15;230(5):1202-1214.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiae302.

Improvement in the 95-95-95 Targets Is Accompanied by a Reduction in Both the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Rate and Incidence in China

Jingrong Ye  1 , Yun Lan  2 , Juan Wang  1 , Yi Feng  3 , Yi Lin  4   5   6 , Ying Zhou  7 , Jinjin Liu  8 , Dan Yuan  9 , Xinli Lu  10 , Weigui Guo  11 , Minna Zheng  12 , Xiao Song  13 , Quanhua Zhou  14 , Hong Yang  15 , Chenli Zheng  16 , Qi Guo  17 , Xiaohui Yang  18 , Kai Yang  19 , Lincai Zhang  20 , Zhangwen Ge  21 , Lifeng Liu  22 , Fengting Yu  23 , Yang Han  24 , Huihuang Huang  25 , Mingqiang Hao  1 , Qiang Chen  1 , Xuemei Ling  2 , Yuhua Ruan  3 , Yuan Dong  4   5   6 , Chang Zhou  9 , Xuangu Liu  11 , Jianyun Bai  12 , Xue Tong  13 , Ya Gao  15 , Zhengrong Yang  16 , Ao Wang  17 , Wei Wei  18 , Fanghua Mei  19 , Ruijuan Qiao  20 , Xinhua Luo  21 , Xiaojie Huang  22 , Jing Chen  1 , Fengyu Hu  2 , Xin Shen  4   5   6 , Wei Tan  16 , Aixia Tu  20 , Xinhui Zhang  26 , Shufang He  1 , Zhen Ning  4   5   6 , Jixiang Fan  17 , Cong Liu  19 , Conghui Xu  1 , Xianlong Ren  1 , Yanming Sun  1 , Yang Li  1 , Guowu Liu  1 , Xiyao Li  1 , Jie Li  1 , Junyi Duan  22 , Tao Huang  22 , Shuiqing Liu  27 , Guolong Yu  28 , Donglin Wu  17 , Yiming Shao  3 , Qichao Pan  4   5   6 , Linglin Zhang  9 , Bin Su  22 , Jianjun Wu  29 , Tianjun Jiang  25 , Hongxin Zhao  23 , Tong Zhang  22 , Faqing Chen  20 , Kun Cai  19 , Bing Hu  18 , Hui Wang  17 , Jin Zhao  16 , Baicheng Gao  15 , Wei Sun  13 , Tielin Ning  12 , Jianjun Li  30 , Shu Liang  9 , Yuqi Huo  8 , Gengfeng Fu  7 , Xin Chen  4   5   6 , Feng Li  2 , Hui Xing  3 , Hongyan Lu  1
Affiliations

Improvement in the 95-95-95 Targets Is Accompanied by a Reduction in Both the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Rate and Incidence in China

Jingrong Ye et al. J Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: In 2016, China has implemented the World Health Organization's "treat all" policy. We aimed to assess the impact of significant improvements in the 95-95-95 targets on population-level human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission dynamics and incidence.

Methods: We focused on 3 steps of the HIV care continuum: diagnosed, on antiretroviral therapy, and achieving viral suppression. The molecular transmission clusters were inferred using HIV-TRACE. New HIV infections were estimated using the incidence method in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control HIV Modelling Tool.

Results: Between 2004 and 2023, the national HIV epidemiology database recorded 2.99 billion person-times of HIV tests and identified 1 976 878 new diagnoses. We noted a roughly "inverted-V" curve in the clustering frequency, with the peak recorded in 2014 (67.1% [95% confidence interval, 63.7%-70.5%]), concurrent with a significant improvement in the 95-95-95 targets from 10-13-<71 in 2005 to 84-93-97 in 2022. Furthermore, we observed a parabolic curve for a new infection with the vertex occurring in 2010.

Conclusions: In general, it was suggested that the improvements in the 95-95-95 targets were accompanied by a reduction in both the population-level HIV transmission rate and incidence. Thus, China should allocate more effort to the first "95" target to achieve a balanced 95-95-95 target.

Keywords: 95-95-95 targets; HIV care cascade; incidence; molecular transmission network; transmission rate.

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Conflict of interest statement

Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.

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