Burden of severe periodontitis and edentulism in 2021, with projections up to 2050: The Global Burden of Disease 2021 study

Abstract

Aim: To (i) assess the prevalence, incidence, and burden of severe periodontitis and edentulism in 2021, and (ii) forecast their rates in 2050.

Methods: Prevalence, incidence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) for severe periodontitis and edentulism in 2021 were gathered globally, covering 204 countries, seven super regions, and 21 regions from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to periodontitis and edentulism to 2050 were projected using mixed-effects models with the socio-demographic index as the main covariate.

Results: In 2021, over 1 billion people were affected by severe periodontitis (1066.95 million; 95% UI: 896.55-1234.84), with a global age-standardized prevalence of 12.50% (10.53-14.49). South Asia had the highest prevalence rate, at 17.57% (14.73; 20.14). Edentulism affected 353 million people globally (300.60-416.20), resulting in an age-standardized prevalence of 4.11% (3.50; 4.83). The highest edentulism prevalence was found in Latin America and the Caribbean, at 7.39% (6.44; 8.39). By 2050, more than 1.5 billion people (+44.32%) are projected to have severe periodontitis, and over 660 million (+84.40%) to be edentulous. In the same year, 19.67% (130.23 million) of the edentulous people worldwide will be located in China. Severe periodontitis is expected to move up one position, and edentulism nine positions, among the most impactful Level 4 diseases/conditions affecting YLDs worldwide by 2050.

Conclusion: Severe periodontitis and edentulism remain major public health challenges in 2021, with the number of affected individuals projected to rise significantly in the coming decades.

Keywords: demography; edentulism; epidemiologic factors; epidemiology; forecasting; global disease burden; global health; morbidity; periodontal diseases.