Profile and Determinants for Complications of Imported Malaria in 5 Chinese Provinces From 2014 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis

Abstract

Background: In 2021, the World Health Organization officially declared the People's Republic of China as malaria-free. However, despite this milestone achievement, the continued occurrence of severe and fatal cases of imported malaria in China, due to globalization and increased international communication, remains a significant public health concern.

Objective: The aim of this study was to elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of imported malaria in 5 Chinese provinces from 2014 to 2021 and to identify the factors that influence complications in imported malaria cases. The findings will provide a basis for enhancing prevention and control measures, thereby consolidating China's achievements in malaria elimination.

Methods: A case-based retrospective study was performed, using surveillance data collected from the representative provinces of China from 2014 to 2021. Epidemiological characteristics were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Logistic regression was used to identify the factors influencing the occurrence of complications.

Results: A total of 5559 malaria cases were included during the study period. The predominant species was Plasmodium falciparum (3940/5559, 70.9%), followed by Plasmodium ovale (1054/5559, 19%), Plasmodium vivax (407/5559, 7.3%), Plasmodium malariae (157/5559, 2.8%), and 1 case of Plasmodium knowlesi. Most of the cases were male (5343/5559, 96.1%). The complication rates for P falciparum and P ovale were 11.4% and 3.3%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the relevant factors of malaria complications revealed potential protective factors, including a previous infection by Plasmodium (P<.001; odds ratio [OR] 0.512, 95% CI 0.422-0.621), and risk factors, including increased age (P=.004; OR 1.014, 95% CI 1.004-1.024), misdiagnosis at the first clinical visit (P<.001; OR 3.553, 95% CI 2.886-4.375), and the time interval from onset to treatment (P=.001; OR 1.026, 95% CI 1.011-1.042). Subgroup analyses identified risk factors associated with P falciparum, which include advanced age (P=.004; OR 1.015, 95% CI 1.005-1.026), initial misdiagnosis during the first clinical visit (P<.001; OR 3.549, 95% CI 2.827-4.455), the time interval from onset to treatment (P<.001; OR 1.043, 95% CI 1.022-1.063), and a delay of more than 3 days from the first treatment to diagnosis (P<.001; OR 2.403, 95% CI 1.823-3.164). Additionally, the risk factors pertaining to P ovale involve misdiagnosis at the initial clinical visit (P=.01; OR 2.901, 95% CI 1.336-6.298), the time interval from onset to treatment (P=.002; OR 1.095, 95% CI 1.033-1.160), and the duration from the initial treatment to diagnosis (P=.43; OR 1.032, 95% CI 0.953-1.118). Previous infections can prevent the progression of both P falciparum and P ovale.

Conclusions: This study showed that the increasing proportion of P ovale in recent years should not be ignored. Furthermore, there is a need to improve diagnostic awareness, enhance the capacity of medical institutions, and provide health education for high-risk groups.

Keywords: China; complications; epidemiological characteristics; imported malaria; influencing factors.

Figure 1.. Number of imported malaria cases in 5 provinces of China from 2014 to 2021.