Under-five mortality during the war in Tigray: A community-based study

Abstract

Background: Child mortality is one of the key indicators of the Sustainable development goals. The Ethiopian healthcare system in general and Tigray's healthcare system in particular has shown a remarkable progress in terms of reducing maternal, neonatal, and under-five mortality in the last couple of decades. However, the war erupted in November 2020 caused the healthcare system to collapse and little is known about the status of child mortality in Tigray. Thus, this study aimed to examine the magnitude and causes of under-five child mortality in the embattled Tigray region was conducted from October 2020 - May 2022.

Methods: A cross-sectional community-based survey was employed. The study included all zones except the western zone and some areas of eastern and north western Tigray bordering Eritrea. These areas were skipped for security reasons. Based on multistage cluster sampling, 121 tabiyas in districts were selected. Census was conducted to survey 189,087 households in the 121 Tabiyas. A locally developed household screening tool and the latest world health organization verbal autopsy instrument were used. The Verbal Autopsy data was processed using the Inter-VA-5.1 (probabilistic modeling) to assign the cause of death. Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) was calculated per 1000 live births with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results: In the present study, out of 29,761 live births, 1761 under-five children died giving an under-five mortality rate of 59(95% CI, 57-62) per 1000 live births. Deaths in the neonatal period and post-neonatal period accounted for 60% and 19.9% of the deaths respectively. Overall, the top 3 causes of under-five child mortality in the present study were: Perinatal asphyxia (n = 277,18%,) prematurity (n = 235,16%) and diarrheal diseases (n = 162, 12.5%). In those who died after first month of life, diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory tract infection, sever acute malnutrition and HIV were the main causes of death. Concerning the place of death, 61.6% of the children died at home.

Conclusion: The present study revealed the doubling of under-five mortality in Tigray from where the figure stood in the pre-war period. The leading causes of death in under-five mortality are potentially preventable in situation where the healthcare system is functioning. Restoring the healthcare system and its apparatus, improving access to skilled institutional delivery, smooth perinatal transition, improving nutrition status of children, access to full course of vaccines could ameliorate the staggering under-five mortality rate in the war in Tigray.

Keywords: Cause; Magnitude; Tigray war; Under-five mortality.

Fig. 1

Flow chart of data collection and analysis of the under five mortality study, Tigray, Ethiopia, 2021/22

Fig. 2

Under five mortality rate among districts in Tigray, Tigray, Ethiopia, 2021/22

Fig. 3

Place of death for deceased under five in Tigray, Tigray, Ethiopia, 2021/22

Fig. 4

Under five mortality rate per months during war time in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2021/22

Fig. 5

Cause specific mortality fraction for under-five deaths during war time in Tigray, Ethioipia,2020/2021