Gestational weight gain at the national, regional, and income group levels based on 234 national household surveys from 70 low-income and middle-income countries

Abstract

Gestational weight gain (GWG) estimates enable the identification of populations of women at risk for adverse outcomes. We described GWG distribution in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Demographic and Health Surveys and other national surveys were used to calculate the average GWG by regressing the weight of pregnant women (15-49 years) at the time of the interview on their gestational age, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. A mixed-effects hierarchical model was built with survey-specific GWG as the dependent variable and restricted cubic splines for survey year, super-region, and country-level covariates (total fertility rate, gross domestic product, and average female body mass index) to predict the national, regional, and income level average GWG in 2020. Uncertainty ranges (UR) were obtained using bootstrap. Estimates were compared with the Institute of Medicine's GWG recommendations for women with normal weight (11.5kg) and underweight (12.5kg). Survey data were available for 70 LMICs (234 data points, 1991-2022). Predicted country-specific GWG for 2020 ranged from 2.6 to 13.5kg. Ten countries presented estimates above the recommendation for women with underweight; nine of which were from Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia; apart from one, these were upper-middle income. Regional GWG was estimated at 5.4kg (95%UR 3.1,7.7) in Sub-Saharan Africa; 6.2kg (95%UR 3.4,9.0) in North Africa and the Middle East; 8.6kg (95%UR 6.0,11.3) in South Asia; 9.3kg (95%UR 6.2,12.3) in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania; 10.0kg (95%UR 7.1,12.9) in Latin America and the Caribbean; and 13.0kg (95%UR 9.0,16.9) in Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. A gradient was observed across income: 5.3kg (95%UR 2.7,7.9) for low-income, 7.6kg (95%UR 5.2,10.1) for lower-middle-income, and 9.8kg (95%UR 7.1,12.5) for upper-middle-income countries. No income group achieved the minimum recommended weight gain. GWG was estimated to be insufficient in almost all LMICs. Improved data and monitoring are crucial for impactful interventions.

Fig 1. Average country-specific gestational weight gain (GWG) estimated for the year 2020 using hierarchical modeling and the corresponding 95% uncertainty range by geographic super-region.

Note: dashed lines represent the super region estimate. The gray area represents the minimum total gestational weight gain recommended by the Institute of Medicine for normal-weight (11.5 kg) and underweight (12.5 kg) women.

Fig 2. Average country-specific gestational weight gain (GWG) estimated for the year 2020 using hierarchical modeling and the corresponding 95% uncertainty range by income group.

Note: dashed lines represent the income group estimate. The gray area represents the minimum total gestational weight gain recommended by the Institute of Medicine for normal-weight (11.5 kg) and underweight (12.5 kg) women.