Global incidence trends of autoimmune diseases from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: A systemic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

Background: The analysis of the incidence trends of four autoimmune diseases (ADs) globally from 1990 to 2021, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS), and psoriasis, reveals significant patterns of change, which further projects the incidence of these diseases at the global, regional, and national levels up to the year 2050.

Methods: The estimates for the number of incident cases and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), along with the 95 % uncertainty intervals (UI) for RA, IBD, MS and psoriasis, were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the global incidence trends of these four ADs from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to project the number of new cases and incidence rates of these four ADs up to 2050.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of MS showed a declining trend (EAPC = -0.02 %, 95 % UI: -0.07 to 0.03), while the global ASIRs of IBD (EAPC = 0.29 %, 95 % UI: 0.20 to 0.38), RA (EAPC = 0.49 %, 95 % UI: 0.46 to 0.52), and psoriasis (EAPC = 0.23 %, 95 % UI: 0.21 to 0.26) demonstrated increasing trends. From 2022 to 2050, the global ASIRs of these four ADs are projected to rise, with the number of cases for all these conditions expected to continue increasing.

Conclusions: The global incidence trends and projected changes in ADs reveal that the burden of ADs is expected to continue growing in the future, underscoring the necessity for developing targeted policies to address this emerging challenge.

Keywords: Ads; Autoimmune diseases; Global burden of diseases study; Incidence; Trends.