Incidence, outcomes, and predictors of new heart failure in syrian conflict-affected population following hospitalization for atrial fibrillation: A retrospective cohort study

Abstract

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia worldwide. Data regarding readmission for new congestive heart failure (CHF) following index admission for AF in the developing world are poorly described.ObjectivesThe study aimed to assess the rate, predictors, and outcomes of 120-day CHF readmission after index admission for AF in Syria.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study collected all adult patients without known CHF who had an index admission with AF to Latakia's tertiary center between June 2021-December 2023. Data were taken from patients' medical notes. The primary outcome included readmission with incident CHF within 120 of index discharge, and secondary outcomes included predictors and outcomes of these CHF readmissions.ResultsA total of 660 patients were included in the final analysis, of which 69 (11.7%) were readmitted with new CHF within 120 days of index discharge. Readmitted patients had higher median age (58 vs 70 years, p < .001). Factors that independently increased 120-day CHF incidence were age ≥60 years (HR: 9.8, 95% CI: 4.8-23.6, p < .001), diabetes mellitus (DM) (HR:2.9, 95% CI:1.7-4.9, p < .001), valvular heart disease (VHD) (HR:1.7, 95% CI:1.04-2.78, p = .047), and hypertension (HR:2.5, 95% CI:1.5-4, p < .001). Inpatient mortality occurred in six readmitted patients (9%). LVEF <40% (HR:6.7, 95% CI: 24.31, p = .01) and DM (HR:7.2, 95% CI: 1.9-33, p = .004) were independently associated with inpatient mortality.ConclusionHospitalization for new CHF was common in Syrian patients discharged with AF. The clinical predictors of incident CHF emphasize the importance of integrated management of lifestyle risk factors and common comorbidities in AF patients to optimize outcomes in resource-depleted communities.

Keywords: Syria; atrial fibrillation; conflict; heart failure; mortality; readmission.

Figure 1.

Demonstrates Kaplan-Meier analysis regarding positive predictors of first heart failure hospitalization within 120 days after index discharge for atrial fibrillation. VHD: valvular heart disease.