Epidemiological characterization of hand, foot, and mouth disease among hospitalized children from 2014 to 2023 in a hospital in Henan Province: Longitudinal surveillance study

Abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute infectious illness primarily caused by enteroviruses. The present study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized HFMD patients in a hospital in Henan Province (Zhengzhou, China), and to predict the future epidemiological parameters. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of general demographic and clinical data on hospitalized children who were diagnosed with HFMD from 2014 to 2023. We used wavelet analysis to determine the periodicity of the disease. We also conducted an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the detection ratio of severe illness. Additionally, we employed a Seasonal Difference Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) model to forecast characteristics of future newly hospitalized HFMD children. A total of 19 487 HFMD cases were included in the dataset. Among these cases, 1515 (7.8%) were classified as severe. The peak incidence of HFMD typically fell between May and July, exhibiting pronounced seasonality. The emergence of COVID-19 pandemic changed the ratio of severe illness. In addition, the best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (2,0,2)(1,0,1)_12. The incidence of severe cases decreased significantly following the introduction of the vaccine to the market (χ² = 109.9, p < 0.05). The number of hospitalized HFMD cases in Henan Province exhibited a seasonal and declining trend from 2014 to 2023. Non-pharmacological interventions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a reduction in the incidence of severe illness.

Keywords: epidemiological characterization; hand, foot, and mouth disease; time‐series analysis; wavelet analysis.