Can verbal autopsies be used on a national scale? Key findings and lessons from South Africa's national cause-of-death validation study

Abstract

Background: Verbal autopsy (VA), though imperfect, serves as a vital tool to determine cause-of-death, particularly for out-of-facility deaths, but challenges persist in integrating VA into Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems.

Objective: To describe the challenges and successes of collecting a national sample of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa to obtain the cause of death profile in 2017/18.

Methods: We recruited next of kin from 27 randomly selected sub-districts (10.5%) across South Africa between September 2017 and April 2018. Trained fieldworkers conducted face-to-face interviews using the WHO2016 VA instrument, with physicians certifying underlying causes of death. Feasibility was evaluated based on response rates, participation, and data quality.

Results: Of the total 36,976 deaths registered, only 26% were identified during recruitment, with a 55% overall response rate for VA interviews. Physician-reviewed VA data were deemed of good quality for assigning underlying causes of death in 83% of cases. By comparing cause-specific mortality fractions, physician-reviewed VA identified 22.3% HIV/AIDS and InterVA-5 identified 18.5%, aligning with burden of disease estimates, while Statistics South Africa reported 4.9% HIV/AIDS.

Conclusions: The study demonstrated the feasibility of using VA on a national scale, but immense challenges in identifying and recruiting next of kin highlight the importance of formalising VAs within the country's death notification system.

Keywords: Cause of death; Civil Registration and Vital Statistics; South Africa; cause-specific mortality fractions; verbal autopsy.

Figure 1.

Map of selected health sub-districts and provincial boundaries, South African national cause of death validation project 2017/18.

Figure 2.

Map of KwaZulu natal showing selected health sub-districts and the address of verbal autopsy interviews conducted for South African national cause of death validation project 2017/18.

Figure 3.

Leading causes of death based on 2017 stats SA data compared with physician reviewed verbal autopsy data aggregated to National Burden of disease list.

Figure 4.

Leading injury-related causes of death stats SA, 2017 and physician reviewed verbal autopsy data aggregated to national burden of disease list.

Figure 5.

Comparison of verbal autopsy cause-specific mortality fractions based on physician reviews with InterVA-5 for the South African national cause of death validation project 2017/18.